EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.

08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2064 as the euro lost strength against its trading partners on US employment news.

Traders shouldn’t doubt the resolve of the Swiss National Bank to maintain a ceiling on the value of the franc currency versus the euro, Thomas Jordan, the central bank’s acting chairman, told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday. “There should be absolutely no doubt whatsoever about the capability of the SNB to maintain the minimum exchange rate,” he told the newspaper. “We are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary.” The SNB last September set a floor on the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate at 1.20 francs in an effort to cap a rise in the value of the franc

Retail sales across the 17-nation region fell 0.4% in December, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported. Compared to December 2010, sales declined 1.6%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in December sales and a 1.3% year-on-year fall.

Private-sector activity in the 17-nation euro zone returned to growth in January, according to the final Markit composite purchasing managers index for the region released Friday. The index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.3 in December, confirming an earlier flash estimate. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a figure below that level indicates contraction. The reading marked the first move back above 50 in five months. The data continued to show a divide across the region, with German PMI hitting a seven-month high and French PMI hitting a five-month high, while readings for Italy, Spain and Ireland remained below the 50-level, although the rate of decline eased in Italy and Spain.

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction

Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL

Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction

Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt

Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16

Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13

Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction

Originally posted here