EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 12, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading 1.2060 with the euro slightly higher against the franc. The pair remained in a fairly well defined small trading channel today. The pair moved between 1.2051 and 1.2061 and should settle in the somewhere close to the center of the range.

The euro fell against most of its trading partners, but managed to move up here.

The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece’s outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government’s minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone.

Conditions are in place for Greece to get its second bailout, said Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker in a statement released Friday. “I welcome the significant progress achieved in the preparation of the second Greek adjustment program,” said Juncker, after a teleconference between euro-zone finance ministers on Friday

Spain: Commission spokesman said “Technicians of the European Commission have been in Madrid this week to collect information on the 2011 public accounts” adding “it is a normal practice in all countries under an excessive deficit procedure”

Italy: January SA industrial output -2.5% m/m, WDA -5.0% y/y,on a contraction across all output sectors, posting the worst fall in the y/y index since Dec 2009 (-6.5% y/y). The m/m decline follows m/m gains of +1.2% in December and +0.2% in November.-January unadjusted y/y output fell -2.1%, up from -7.7% y/y in Dec

France’s government deficit at end-January amounted to E12.5 billion, down E918 million from the previous-year level, the Budget Ministry said Friday. Outlays totaled E32.8 billion, E6.5 billion higher than in January 2011. This was mainly due to a new financial management system that allowed ministries to hit the ground running at the start of the year, the ministry explained.

Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 09	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.67B	1.51B	1.33B
CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	3.2%	3.6%	4.5%
CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	21.5%	19.6%	23.8%
CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	11.4%	12.4%	12.8%
CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	14.7%	17.4%	18.1%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	2.1%	0.7%	0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events

06:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

08:15 CHF PPI (MoM)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

09:30 GBP Current Account

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.

Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 12 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn new Sep 2012 Bubill

Mar 12 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

mso-s3

Originally posted here