EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 13, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading 1.2058 having opened at 1.2058 for two days now this pair has slept. The euro has been able to pick up strength against its trading partners after absorbing the ruling on credit swaps and the downgrade of Greek bonds. But this pair remained in a very tight range.

There has been little economic or political news to move the Franc. There has not been much in the way of news from the eurozone today.

Eurozone ministers, in a conference call on Friday, already approved releasing part of the EUR130 billion that is helping finance the debt swap. A final meeting has been set in Brussels to give their final approval to the second Greek bailout and to discuss tightening measures to prevent a repetition of the crisis. The ministers are expected to sign off on the EUR130 billion ($A162.56 billion) rescue program after Greece’s private creditors approved wiping off some EUR100 billion from Athens’ debt.

Spanish officials are expected on Monday to seek support of their European counterparts for the country’s recent announcement that the 2012 budget deficit would reach 5.8%, overshooting an EU target of 4.4%, media reports said.

Italy’s gross domestic product declined by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to the three months in the prior quarter, Italy’s statistical office, ISTAT, said on Monday. Compared to the year-ago quarter, GDP fell 0.4%. Italy is now in a “technical” recession.

March 12, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 12	00:50	JPY	CGPI (YoY)	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
00:50	JPY	Core Machinery Orders (MoM)	3.4%	2.3%	-7.1%
05:01	MYR	Malaysian Industrial Production (YoY)	0.2%	4.1%	2.9%
06:00	JPY	Household Confidence	39.5	40.6	40.0
06:30	INR	Indian Industrial Production (YoY)	6.8%	2.1%	2.5%
08:00	EUR	German WPI (MoM)	1.0%	1.1%	1.2%
10:00	EUR	Italian GDP (QoQ)	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%
11:30	EUR	German 6-Month Bubill Auction	0.053%	0.076%

Scheduled Economic Events for March 13, 2012

Europe

01:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance -14% -16%

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the percentage of surveyors reporting a house price increase in their designated area. A level above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices; below indicates more reported a fall. The report is a leading indicator of house price inflation as surveyors have access to the latest price data.

09:15 CHF PPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation

10:30 GBP Trade Balance -7.8B -7.1B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

11:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 10.5 5.4

11:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 3.8 -8.1

The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health. The reading is compiled from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.

13:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

Mario Draghi (born 3 September1947) is an Italian banker and economist who has been governor of the Bank of Italy and succeeded Jean Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank starting November 2011. As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the EUR value than any other person. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

Originally posted here