EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 19, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
EUR/CHF has moved in response to the USD. As the USD dropped after some lackluster reports today, the euro was able to gain strength. Earlier in the day, the euro fell against the Franc after UBS AG (UBS), Switzerland’s largest bank by market capitalization, raised it forecasts for Swiss economic growth for this year and next, and expects the country to avoid slipping into a recession despite the effects of the strong franc.
The euro picked up its losses and is ending the week, just about where the day opened. The pair is currently holding at 0.8325 after opening at 0.8326.
There was only a minimum of economic data released in the EU today, none having any major effects on the pairs trading.
Italy posted a EUR4.35 billion trade deficit in January, most of it due to energy imports, as both exports and imports declined, national statistics institute Istat said Friday. Italy’s unadjusted trade deficit in January 2011 was EUR6.3 billion.
Official data released Friday in Spain showed government debt rose to 68.5% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2011. Data published by the Bank of Spain revealed the debt number was the highest stretching back to 1995.
Released Economic Reports for March 16, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
EUR |
Italian Trade Balance |
-4.35B |
1.62B |
1.15B |
|
EUR |
Trade Balance |
5.9B |
6.2B |
7.4B |
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
-4.19B |
6.27B |
7.38B |
|
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-0.90% |
0.60% |
0.60% |
Economic Events for March 19, 2012
01:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
The Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the asking price of homes for sale. This is the U.K.’s earliest report on house price inflation, but tends to have a mild impact because asking prices do not always reflect selling prices.
01:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence
Nationwide Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)
Wholesale Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 19 n/a Greece CDS Auction
Mar 19 10:10 Slovakia Bond auction
Mar 19 10:10 Norway T-bill auction
Mar 20 09:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Mar 21 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Mar 21 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Mar 21 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills
Mar 22 10:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Mar 22 10.30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt
Mar 22 15:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar
28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29
Originally posted here
