EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 28, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2053 slightly down for the day. The pair were up as high as 1.2069 but the euro was unable to hold its position. The pair continues to stay close to the 1.2050 range line.

There was little in strong economic support for the euro in today’s session with some general eurozone reports, ranging from German Import Price Index to French consumer confidence.

Euro-zone finance ministers meeting at the end of this week need to boost the firepower of the region’s rescue funds to at least 1 trillion euros ($1.34 trillion) in order to restore market confidence, Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the OECD.

The European Commission has authorized the restructuring of Banco Portugues de Neg?cios, which has benefited from state aid since it was nationalized in November 2008, it said Tuesday.

Spain’s government plans to increase power prices by between 5% and 7% at the beginning of April, Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said Tuesday in an interview with broadcaster Antena 3.

Italy on Tuesday sold 3.82 billion euros($5.1 billion)of zero-coupon and inflation-linked bonds as borrowing costs continued to decline. Italy’s Treasury said it sold 2.82 billion euros of 24-month zero-coupon bonds at a yield of 2.35%

French consumer confidence rose sharply and unexpectedly in March to a level not seen in over a year, national statistics bureau Insee said Tuesday. Households became more confident about their financial outlook and the standard of living in France.

The euro is expected to fall this week, as Spain continues to worry the markets. The euro was inflated by Federal Reserve Bernanke’s speech earlier this week.

Economic Data for March 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Mar. 27	JPY	CSPI (YoY)		-0.6%	-0.4%	-0.4%
CHF	Consumption Indicator	0.87	0.93
EUR	German Import Price Index (MoM)	1.0%	1.0%	1.3%
EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	6.2	6.0
EUR	French Consumer Confidence	87	83	82
EUR	Netherlands GDP (YoY)	-0.6%	-0.7%	-0.7%
HKD	Hong Kong Trade Balance	-45.8B	-15.0B	-8.9B
EUR	Italian 2-Year CTZ Auction	2.352%	3.013%
GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	0	-4	-2
TRY	Turkish Interest Rate Decision	5.75%	5.75%	5.75%
HUF	Hungarian Interest Rate Decision	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
USD	S&P/CS Home Price Indices Composite – 20 (YoY)	-3.8%	-3.8%	-4.1%
USD	CB Consumer Confidence	70.2	70.3	71.6
USD	Richmond Manufacturing Index	7	18	20

Economic Events March 28, 2012 Europe and America

06:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) 0.2% 0.2%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

09:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) -5.4% -5.6%

Business Investment measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of capital expenditure made by companies in the private sector.

09:30 GBP Current Account -8.4B -15.2B

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

09:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) -0.2% -0.2%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

T.B.D. EUR German CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.7%

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.5% -3.0%

13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 3.0% -3.7%

Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity. Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Originally posted here