EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 9-13, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

ntroduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).

• The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
• Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF dropped below the floor set by the SNB briefly on Thursday touching as low as 1.1990 before it was immediately pushed back over. Rumors of intervention by the Swiss National Bank have not been confirmed.

The euro plunged midweek and continued to decline against most it is trading partners for the rest of the week. On Friday while markets were closed the US released a confusion NFP report, which has given the euro a bit of strength over the weekend. Many markets remain closed on Monday also

Disappointing economic data flowed all week. Spain introduced a tough new budget, which incorporated all the austerity measures demanded by the EU, but in reality would be difficult or impossible to implement.

Greece continued in the headlines, as worried about the necessity of a 3^rd bailout became news.

Midweek, the US FOMC minutes were released throwing markets into turmoil. It was clear by the minutes that the FED has no plans of any additional monetary easing in any form. This made investors rethink values.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
04/06/2012	1.2017	1.2020	1.2025	1.2012	-0.02%
04/05/2012	1.2019	1.2034	1.2041	1.2000	-0.12%
04/04/2012	1.2034	1.2047	1.2047	1.2031	-0.11%
04/03/2012	1.2047	1.2038	1.2049	1.2032	0.07%
04/02/2012	1.2037	1.2040	1.2048	1.2037	-0.02%
04/01/2012	1.2040	1.2041	1.2046	1.2039	-0.01%

Historical

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.

Economic Data from Europe for the week of April 2-6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 02	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.8%	3.2%	4.7%
08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	51.1	49.5	49.0
08:50	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	46.7	47.6	47.6
08:55	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.4	48.1	48.1
09:00	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	47.7	47.7	47.7
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	52.1	50.5	51.5
10:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate	10.8%	10.8%	10.7%
Apr. 03	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Apr. 04	08:00	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	2.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%
09:30	GBP	Services PMI	55.3	53.5	53.8
10:00	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	1.1%
11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.3%	1.2%	-1.8%
12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
13:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
Apr. 05	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%
08:30	EUR	Dutch CPI (YoY)	2.50%	2.20%	2.50%
09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.6%
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-1.0%	0.1%	-0.3%
12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	325B	325B	325B
15:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.1%	0.0%

Economic Event: (GMT)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, the USD and the Franc

Apr. 10	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-13%
06:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate	3.1%
Apr. 12	06:30	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	0.4%
08:30	EUR	Dutch Retail Sales (YoY)	0.80%
09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-7.5B
10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%
10:00	EUR	Portuguese CPI (MoM)	0.10%
10:00	EUR	Greek Unemployment Rate	21.00%
Apr. 13	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%
07:00	EUR	Finnish CPI (YoY)	3.10%
09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	2.1%

Originally posted here