By FX Empire.com
Economic Event: (GMT)
Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast
US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday
|
Feb. 21 |
00:30 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
13:30 |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) | ||
|
Feb. 22 |
09:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales | |
|
Feb. 23 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims | |
|
Feb. 24 |
07:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) | |
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast
Historical
Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.
Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.
Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.
Rules:
Characteristics
Average broker spread: 3-5 pips
Daily range average: 35-48 pips
What moves:
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
- Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals
Trading the EUR/CHF
News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/CHF is trading as 1.2088 almost at the point they started the week off. The Swissie itself has been very boring this week. The duo moved all week but only in relation to the moved of the euro, which has been to the high of highs and the low of lows on new and rumors from Greece. The euro hit highs against the USD almost breaking the 1.33 level and falling below the 1.30 level all on Greece.
This week will be the same, with little data in Switzerland and the US markets closed on Monday.
Strength
- Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
- German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
- Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
- Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
- Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
- NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
- India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
- Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
- UK announces new round of QE
- Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
- China reduces bank reserves
- ECB deposit facility falls
- Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE
Weakness
- Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
- Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
- Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
- Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
- Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
- Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
- US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
- CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.
Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast
|
Feb. 14 |
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference | ||||
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter | ||||
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
Feb. 15 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.9K |
3.2K |
1.9K |
|
|
GBP |
BoE Inflation Report | ||||
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks | ||||
|
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes | ||||
|
Feb. 16 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks | ||||
|
Feb. 17 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
0.6% |
|
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
Originally posted here
