By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
- Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/CHF ended the week at 1.2011. The ongoing battle between the euro bears and the SNB has kept the pair locked in a very tight channel. The pair is oblivious to the turmoil in the eurozone. As seen on the chart below, the entire range this week was between 1.2014 and 1.2008 closing most days near the 1.2010 level.
The ongoing problems in Europe continue to add weakness to the euro as the possibilities of Greece exiting the euro become more likely. And now with blackmail from the Greek politicians, perhaps the EU will do what it should have done before and stay out of the way, and let Greece handle their own matters and then be there to help with recovery.
Major Economic Events for the week of May 14-18 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and the Franc
|
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.6B |
-8.4B |
-8.6B |
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-2.4 |
11.7 |
13.1 |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-13.7K |
5.0K |
-5.4K |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
0.6% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.5% |
1.6% |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.
Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.
Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
May 21 |
5:45 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-18 |
-19 |
|
May 22 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
3.5% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.9B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
RPI y/y |
3.6% |
||
|
TBD |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.48M |
||
|
May 23 |
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
-1.3B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
0-0-9 |
||
|
TBD |
EUR |
Industrial New Orders m/m |
-1.2% |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-8 |
||
|
TBD |
GBP |
Inflation Report Hearings |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
328K |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|||
|
May 24 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
1.69B |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
46.9 |
||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
45.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
52.2 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
109.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
46.9 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.8% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Revised GDP q/q |
-0.2% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
31.9K |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Prelim Business Investment q/q |
-3.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-4.0% |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-10.7 |
Originally posted here
