EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis April 3, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is down trading at 0.8319 as the Sterling soared against the USD and the euro on strong ISM manufacturing data. UK manufacturing saw its strongest growth in 10 months, according to the latest Markit/Chartered Institute of purchasing and Supply survey, published by Reuters. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a ten-month high of 52.1 in March, from a revised reading of 51.5 in February.

Markit pointed out that the PMI has now signalled expansion for four successive months, with its average reading in Q1 2012 (51.8) the highest since the second quarter of last year.

In the eurozone ISM reports were release for several of the larger manufacturing countries. The data showed Eurozone March final manufacturing PMI 47.7, French March final manufacturing PMI 46.7, Italian March manufacturing PMI 47.9, Spain March manufacturing PMI 44.5 Down from 45.0 in February and lowest read since December. Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 51.5 in March and Swiss March PMI 51.1 stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 49.5.

Swiss February retail sales fell from 4.7% in January.

The head of Germany’s Ifo economic research institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, sees no end to the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. “One has to fear that the current account deficits will remain for a longer time and that the debt crisis in the southern [European] states will worsen again,” Sinn told German business weekly Wirtschaftswoche in an interview published today.

The final straw for the euro was the Eurozone unemployment, which showed Eurozone February unemployment increased to 10.8 % as expected from 10.7% in January.

Tuesday trading bring us UK housing prices and Eurozone GDP, which could see the euro continue to fall

Economic Data for April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

00:00	KRW	South Korean CPI (YoY)	2.6%	3.1%	3.1%
00:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-4	-1	-4
02:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-7.8%	0.3%	1.1%
06:05	INR	Indian Trade Balance	-15.2B	-13.0B	-14.8B
08:00	DKK	Danish Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.5%	-1.7%	-3.3%
08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.8%	3.2%	4.7%
08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	51.1	49.5	49.0
08:50	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	46.7	47.6	47.6
08:55	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.4	48.1	48.1
09:00	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	47.7	47.7	47.7
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	52.1	50.5	51.5
10:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate	10.8%	10.8%	10.7%
15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	53.4	53.0	52.4

Economic Events scheduled for April 3, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets

T.B.D GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.3% -0.5%

The Halifax House Price Index measures the change in the price of homes and properties financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), one of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.3% -0.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction

Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions

Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Originally posted here