By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8153. There was little in the way of eco data for the UK today and in Europe everything was in the red, German consumer climate and French consumer spending were all under forecast. Spain continues to have mounting problems with their credit rating dropping two notches.

Overnight, UK GFK consumer confidence was reported unchanged at -31, slightly weaker than expected. The impact on sterling trading was limited. Later today, there are no important eco data on the calendar in the UK. So, the focus will be on global issues and on euro side of the story. At least for now, we don’t see any market panic on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, we cannot imagine that it will help the euro.

So, EUR/GBP might remain under pressure. Last week, the Minutes of the April BoE Meeting pushed EUR/GBP out of the previous range. Several other key support levels are lining up like 0.8143, the August 2010 low and 0.8068 the June 2010 low. EUR/GBP came already close to the first support earlier this week. It could take time for EUR/GBP to break clearly below these high profile levels. Nevertheless, we are encouraged by the recent good performance of sterling and continue rating the EUR/GBP short position.

Economic Data for April 27, 2012 actual. v. forecast

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

1.0%

2.4%

-1.6%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

10.3%

9.8%

3.4%

JPY

Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.6

5.9

5.8

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM)

-2.9%

-1.9%

2.9%

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators

0.40

0.26

0.09

EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

5.84%

5.57%

USD

Employment Cost Index (QoQ)

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

USD

GDP Price Index (QoQ)

1.5%

2.0%

0.8%

USD

GDP (QoQ)

2.2%

2.5%

3.0%

Economic Events for April 30, 2012 for the European and US Markets

13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index 0.2% 0.1%

The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:45 USD Chicago PMI 61.8 62.2

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

May 01 09:30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

May 02 09:30 Portugal Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02 13:00 3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y Bonds on May 10

May 02 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03 08:30 Spain Bono auction

May 03 08:50 France OAT auction

Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.

Originally posted here