By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7937 dipping a bit in today’s trading, which is hard to interpret. The euro was trading strong against most of its major crosses. The GBP rose against the USD on weakness in the greenback, but negative eco data from the UK should have depressed the sterling, which it has not at this writing. Perhaps after tomorrows inflation report, we will see a market adjustment.
Industrial production data in the UK was also quite weak at -2.5% m/m in June. That is less bad than had been feared (the preliminary GDP data released in July indicated that industrial production might have fallen by 4.1%) as the UK had a one-time holiday for the Queen’s diamond jubilee celebration, and therefore also lost approximately 5% of its workdays (1/20) in a manner that is not accounted for by seasonal adjustment. UK economics team expects minor upward revisions to Q2 GDP on the basis of this print but still sees trend industrial output as rather weak.
Manufacturing production also declined today.
The BoE will release its inflation report at tomorrow and UK economics team expects that the BoE’s quarterly economic projections will slash down expectations for GDP and CPI, with GDP growth coming in at close to zero and the BoE’s 2-year ahead inflation projection should be around 1-1.2% y/y. They think that this will fuel speculation that the BoE will add to its monetary policy stimulus either via further unconventional policy or a cut to the Bank Rate.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 07 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||||
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-3.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-2.9% |
-4.1% |
1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-4.3% |
-5.0% |
-1.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
-1.7% |
-1.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-4.0% |
7.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
-8 |
|
|
9:30 |
GBP |
|||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.6% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.4B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-48.7B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
-1.9% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-2.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-2.7% |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
-59.7B |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Click here a current EUR/GBP Chart.
Originally posted here
