By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) -0.4% -0.4%
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) -0.3% -0.2%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
09:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) 0.4% -0.6%
Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP
13:30 USD Trade Balance -48.4B -47.8B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 74.3 75.0
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
17:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -65.2B -86.0B
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The pair EUR/GBP is currently at 0.8396 down from the high today of 0.8402. Even though the pair went for a wild ride today, it seems that the end of the day, events cancelled each other out and is trading pretty close to the opening.
During its Thursday meeting, the Bank of England announced an injection of ?50bn into ailing economy.The decision to extend quantitative easing program to ?325bn had been widely predicted after UK economy shrank last year.
At the end of its monthly meeting on Thursday, the Bank’s monetary policy committee also left interest rates at a record low of 0.5%. The Sterling surged against its trading partners, the euro which had been up in early morning trading lost some of its gains.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key lending rate unchanged for another month, in line with what most analysts have been expecting. Politicians in Spain, France and Italy were hopeful that the ECB would cut rates to offset rising debt burdens and help save them from further ratings downgrades. Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the three countries already in receipt of bailout funds from Brussels, were also keen to see lower rates that would cut their borrowing costs and, in the case of Lisbon and Dublin, prevent the need for further bailouts.
Following a post to his Twitter account, Greek Prime Minister Luca Papademos’s office announced this afternoon that talks “were successfully concluded.” A deal had been reached in Greece, between political factions to accept and implement austerity measures.
This announcement pushed the euro back up against the Sterling
These things will happen in this order:
- Greek Parliament passes austerity legislation
- Troika approves second bailout
- PSI deal completed
The Parliamentary vote is expected on Sunday and the bond swap is supposed to start Monday. All the deals appear to be in place, so it’s possible but there is not much room for error. Expect a very skittish market late Friday, Sunday and Monday. Investors will be edgey as anything can make this deal fall apartm. Germany has not be heard from as of this time.
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast
Thursdays Economic Reports ( actual v. forecast )
|
AUD |
1.00 |
-3.00 |
||
|
KRW |
3.25% |
3.25% |
3.25% |
|
|
CNY |
4.5% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
|
|
CNY |
0.7% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
CHF |
-19 |
-22 |
-24 |
|
|
GBP |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
1.0% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
-7.1B |
-8.4B |
-8.9B |
|
|
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
USD |
358K |
370K |
373K |
|
|
EUR |
||||
|
USD |
3515K |
3525K |
3451K |
|
|
MXN |
4.0% |
4.0% |
3.8% |
|
|
GBP |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
Originally posted here
