Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% -0.6%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3% -0.2%
Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -8.6B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 388K 367K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3525K 3437K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The pair EUR/GBP is currently trading 0.8381 after opening at 0.8342. The GBP exhibited weakness today, ahead of Thursdays BoE statements. The euro surged to a two month high today, on hopes that a final agreement could be reached when the ECB agreed to take a haircut on their Greek bonds. These bonds were purchased support the markets and would create a serious loss for the ECB, but it would also mean that the ECB could no longer say that have never lost money on government bonds or on assets. The ECB has been adamant until today about not accepting a loss, a special mechanism has been devised to allow the ECB to sell the assets to the EFSF in a complicated guise of financial “fraud and deception”. The euro is expected to maintain its upward motion, while the markets are worried about BoE statements as already this week BoE King has painted a pretty bleak picture of the UK economy.
Wednesday’s economic reports ( actual )
|
GBP |
BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) |
1.40% |
1.70% |
|
|
JPY |
Economy Watchers Current Index |
44.1 |
47.5 |
47.0 |
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
EUR |
German Trade Balance |
13.9B |
14.1B |
14.9B |
|
EUR |
French Government Budget Balance |
-90.8B |
-90.8B |
-97.2B |
|
EUR |
Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) |
-6.9% |
-6.7% |
-7.0% |
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
Originally posted here
