By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM)
German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Normally this report is carries little significance, but as most the EU recovery depends on Germany, it is of great importance.
09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market. With Italy being the focus of the EU, its economic survival and recovery under strict austerity programs is of great importance. Unemployment is expected to continue to rise, but if hopefully, it will remain within forecast or do better. This will also help with Italian bond sales, if there is any sign of recovery.
Tent. EUR German CPI (MoM)
It is important that Germany can show CORE improvements, to be the locomotive to help pull europe out of the abyss. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The pair EUR/GBP is currently 0.8381 +0.0025 (+0.30%)
The euro continues to shine. Keeping its strength throughtout the day. After news of a successful bond sale in Italy the euro was able to move up again. Spanish unemployment figures disappointed but did not surprise.
The EUR/GBP however continued to rally as the Euro recovery outpaced the Pound. Some are concerned the BOE could expand the Asset purchase program in the UK which is similar to the US QE. The Q4 GBP drop to -0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast added to this speculation.
In Athens news, European Union Monetary Commissioner, Olli Rehn noted that Greece is close to a deal with its creditors at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
He stated, “The next three days will be very crucial. An agreement may come, if not today, then over the weekend,” further fueling
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30, 2012, Forecast
the euro’s advance.
The euro should hold in this range, until an agreement is reached in Greece. News today is moving Portugal to the forefront, things might explode there before Greece is resolved. Hold tight…
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Jan 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Jan 30 10:10 Norway Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond
Jan 30 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction
Jan 30 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 06
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
