By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7847 as the sterling was able to continue to capitalize on the weakness of the euro.
The weight on the euro is unbearable, although it tumbled to 1.2167 against the USD today; it was able to rebound after poor data on retail sales.
The euro is facing lack of market confidence as finance ministers accomplish little. Angela Merkel seems backed into a corner and its attacking like a tiger, while the German courts postpone their decision on the constitutionality of the ESM until September 12th. Meaning the EU is about stuck in place.
Comments over the weekend may have contributed toward a bit of early week jitters. German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted that “All of these attempts will have no chance with me or with Germany” when referencing attempts by some of her European counterparts to stall movements in favor of increased central control over banking oversight and fiscal policy.
The IMF releases forecast updates for global growth at today but the results have already been leaked showing a slight downward revision of growth for 2012.
There plenty of reason for GBP to trade on fundamentals, as markets receives CPI (Tuesday), BoE minutes and employment data (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and public sector borrowing (Friday). The CPI data and BoE minutes are key to the outlook for monetary policy, as inflation remains contained in an environment of stagnant growth, with policymakers seeking to promote economic activity via new, recently announced measures of quantitative easing.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data Releases for Monday, July 16, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 16 |
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
-1.7% |
1.0% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
26.11B |
13.50B |
10.16B |
||
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
4.0 |
2.3 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 17 |
8:30 |
GBP |
2.8% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-16.9 |
||
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
25.6B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
-0.1% |
||
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
8.1K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
8.2% |
||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
-43.4 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.78M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.71M |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-4.7M |
||
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
2.48B |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
4.6B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
1.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
4.55M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-16.6 |
||
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
15.6B |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
Jul 17 08:30 Spain Eur 2.5-3.5bn Jul 2013 (12M) & Dec 2013 (18M) T-bills
Jul 17 09:10 Greece Eur 1.25bn Oct 2012 (3M) T-bills
Jul 17 09:30 Belg Up to Eur 3.0bn Oct 2012 (3M) & Jul 2013 (12M) T-bills
Jul 17 10:00 EFSF Up to Eur 1.5bn Jan 2013 (6M) T-bills
Jul 18 09:30 Ger Eur 5.0bn 0.00% Jun 2014 Schatz
Jul 18 09:30 Port Eur 1.75-2.0bn new Jan 2013 (6M) & new Jul 2013 (12M)
Jul 19 00:30 Japan Auctions 5Y JGBs
Jul 19 08:30 Spain Eur 2.0-3.0bn 3.3% Oct 2014 Bono, 5.5% Jul 2017 &
Jul 19 08:50 France Eur 8.0-9.0bn 2.5% Jan 2015, 2.5% Jul 2016 & new 1.0%
Jul 19 09:30 UK GBP 1.75bn 3.75% Jul 2052 Gilt
Jul 19 09:50 France Eur 1.0-1.5bn 1.3% Jul 2019 OATi,
Jul 19 17:00 US USD 15.0bn 10Y Tips
Click here to read EUR/GBP Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
