By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is back to the resistance/support level at 0.8000, it seems to like getting stuck right on the whole number. The euro dipped today, even though there were several negative data reports from the UK, the overbearing factors was the climb in German unemployment which sent the euro falling.
The main event risk over the next two days will stem from the EU Summit in Brussels, which had been flagged as a key moment prior to the Greek elections of June 17. Before the Greek elections, the risk had been that Greece might elect a leadership that intended to precipitate some type of confrontation with its EU and IMF creditors – a confrontation that some feared would jeopardize Greece’s continued use of the euro as its sole currency. It was believed at the time that this summit could be the mop up operation after the Greek elections. The outcome of the Greek elections has precluded that necessity.
Instead, the focus has moved to the much larger issue of the rising risk premia on Spain and Italy’s bonds as yields on both have climbed markedly since Spain’s third largest bank, Bankia, announced that it would require a bailout of approximately EUR 30bn – roughly the cumulative amount that Spain had previously said was required to recapitalize its entire financial system.
After today’s Italian government bond auctions, it is likely that Monti and Italy will be at the table discussing future assistance.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 28, 2012 actual v. forecast… and you didn’t think it could get worse. The German workhorse breaks a leg…
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 28 |
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.0% |
5.7% |
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
6.9% |
||
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.7% |
6.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
5K |
0K |
|
|
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
1.9% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-11.2B |
-9.0B |
-7.2B |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
6.19% |
6.03% |
And the good news is or almost good news
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
386K |
385K |
392K |
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
2.0% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3296K |
3280K |
3311K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
0.6% |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
|
7:00 |
CHF |
0.81 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
|
13:45 |
USD |
52.7 |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
74.1 |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
