By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8072 falling slightly on the weakness of the euro. The pair followed the tract of the EUR/USD. Trading in the EUR/GBP cross rate mostly joined the intraday trading pattern of the headline EUR/USD pair. EUR/GBP hovered near the 0.81 area during the morning session. The pair tumbled going into the ECB policy decision and early in the press conference, reaching an intraday low at 0.8051.
So, the lack of policy stimulation of the ECB was seen as a negative, rather than a positive also for the euro against sterling. However, the decline was soon reversed (as was the case for EUR/USD). Once again, it is not that evident to see why the euro should gain against sterling due to an overall improvement in sentiment on risk. Hope on a plan to support the Spanish banking sector is probably the best explanation.
Whatever the reason, EUR/GBP closed the session even with a small gain at 0.8119, compared to 0.8095 on Tuesday. So, the battle to regain the 0.8100 neckline continues overnight, the BRC retail sales were slightly better than expected (after a very poor figure last month). The impact on sterling trading was limited. Later today, the Halifax house prices and the Services PMI will be published. A further decline in the PMI might raise speculation on the need for more BoE action. A restart of the BoE programme of asset purchases looks only a matter of timing. Usually, the BoE is not afraid of a voluntary approach. However, it would be a bit strange for King and cohorts to change course again, only one month after they concluded that the UK economy was strong enough to suspend the programme. So, we still prefer a scenario of the BoE waiting a little longer, but it will be a close call. In case of an unchanged decision, this might be slightly supportive for sterling.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
38.9K |
-5.0K |
15.5K |
|
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
5.1% |
5.0% |
|
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.2% |
3.2% |
3.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
-2.4% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.3 |
52.7 |
53.3 |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
325B |
325B |
325B |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
377K |
377K |
389K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3293K |
3245K |
3259K |
|
|
Ivey PMI |
60.5 |
55.0 |
52.7 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Previous |
|
|
Jun 8 |
8:30 |
GBP |
-1.5% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
3.5% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-51.8B |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Jun 11 09:10 Norway
Jun 11 09:10 Slovakia
Jun 11 09:30 Germany
Jun 11 15:30 Italy
Jun 12 08:30 Holland
Jun 12 09:15 Austria
Jun 12 09:30 Belgium
Jun 12 09:30 UK
Jun 12 14:30 UK
Jun 12 17:00 US
Jun 13 09:10 Italy
Jun 13 09:30 Germany
Jun 13 09:30 Swiss
Jun 13 17:00 US
Jun 14 09:10 Italy
Jun 14 09:30 UK
Jun 14 15:00 US
Jun 14 17:00 US
Click here for further EUR/GBP Forecast.
Originally posted here
