By FXEmpire.com
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 23, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is holding at 0.8337 climbing from the open at 0.8326. The pair peaked earlier at 0.8348.
The euro had lost strength as a contraction in private-sector activity across the 17-nation euro zone accelerated in March, underlining fears the region has fallen back into recession, according to a preliminary composite purchasing manager’s index, (PMI). This was compounded by worries over Spain and Italy, as borrowing costs began to rise again.
The weakest of the euro, was not enough to support the Sterling after February British retail sales volumes fell 0.8% from January and were up 1% compared to February 2011, the U.K. Office for National Statistics reported today.
The battle between the two tipped in favor of the euro as the markets were surprised by the negative data from the UK when just yesterday it looked so positive for the GBP.
Economic Reports March 22, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Mar. 22 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.31T |
-0.34T |
-0.49T |
|
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.68B |
1.90B |
1.50B |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
47.6 |
50.5 |
50.0 |
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
50.0 |
50.6 |
50.0 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
48.1 |
51.1 |
50.2 |
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
51.8 |
53.1 |
52.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
47.7 |
49.6 |
49.0 |
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
48.7 |
49.3 |
48.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish industrial New Orders (YoY) |
0.5% |
-2.0% |
-3.5% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
-2.3% |
-2.1% |
3.5% |
|
|
BRL |
Brazilian Unemployment Rate |
5.7% |
5.7% |
5.5% |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
||
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
1.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
350K |
353K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3352K |
3390K |
3361K |
Economic Events for March 23, 2012
01:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 49 47
Nationwide Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism
10:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 39.1K 38.1K
The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.
12:00 CAD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.2%
12:00 CAD CPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.4%
CPI and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
15:00 USD New Home Sales 325K 321K
New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 23 10:10 Sweden
Mar 23 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Mar 27 & BOT on Mar 28
Mar 26 09:10 Norway Nok 3.0bn NST 474 3.75% May 2021 Bond
Mar 26 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Mar 2013 Bubill
Mar 26 15:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Mar 29
Mar 27 09:10 Italy CTZ/BTPei auction
Mar 27 08:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Mar 27 17:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction
Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Originally posted here
