By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP fell 0.039 to trade at 0.8124. The euro fell against most of its partners and cousins today, as the eurozone was filled with negative sentiment and worries over Spanish finances.
At the same time, investors might turn a bit more cautious on the euro going into this weekend’s elections in Greece and in France.
In Europe the day was filled with negative data, as the Germany unemployment rate climbed unexpectedly to 6.8% while German PMI fell. PMI for all of the eurozone was under forecast.
Whereas the UK calendar had two minor reports both at forecast, the construction PMI and the lending data.
As indicated, markets are apparently very confident that the BoE will not raise the program of asset purchases at next week’s meeting. A big negative surprise is needed to change market sentiment on the UK currency.
Economic Reports for May 2, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.30 |
49.10 |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
46.9 |
50.5 |
51.1 |
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.9 |
47.3 |
47.3 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
46.4 |
46.3 |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.7% |
6.8% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
19K |
-10K |
-18K |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
46.0 |
46.0 |
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
10.9% |
10.9% |
10.8% |
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
119K |
177K |
201K |
Economic Events for May 3, 2012 for the European and US Markets
GBP Nationwide HPI
Change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity.
EUR French Industrial Production
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
GBP Services PMI
Survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
EUR Minimum Bid Rate
Measures Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
EUR ECB Press Conference
It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.
USD Unemployment Claims
Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Date Time Country
May 03 08:30 Spain
May 03 08:50 France
May 03 09:10 Sweden
May 03 09:30 UK
May 08 09:15 Austria
May 08 09:30 Belgium
May 08 14:30 UK
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 09 09:10 Sweden
May 09 09:30 Germany
May 09 09:30 Swiss
May 09 09:30 UK
May 09 14:30 Sweden
May 09 15:30 Italy
May 09 17:00 US
May 10 15:00 US
May 10 17:00 US
May 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
May 11 10:00 Belgium
Click here for further EUR/GBP Forecast.
Originally posted here
