By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP declined most of the week as the euro slowly sunk back under the 1.23 level. The week started off with markets supportive of Mr. Draghi and the ECB and hopes that his plans would lead to immediate actions. After the disappointment on Thursday when the ECB offered no guidance or assistance in its monthly meeting and statement. Traders decided to support Mr. Draghi and pushed the euro upwards, and continue to support the currency in the earlier part of the week, by mid week traders had become restless and turned negative as the euro began to descend.
The GBP faced a week of disappointing eco data including a terrible trade balance release on Thursday. Earlier in the week retail sales reported under forecast and Industrial Production was down, but in the battle with the euro the sterling remained stronger.
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
0.7834 |
0.7865 |
0.7877 |
0.7829 |
-0.39% |
Aug 09, 2012 |
0.7865 |
0.7897 |
0.7901 |
0.7856 |
-0.41% |
Aug 08, 2012 |
0.7897 |
0.7933 |
0.7948 |
0.7880 |
-0.45% |
Aug 07, 2012 |
0.7933 |
0.7948 |
0.7959 |
0.7925 |
-0.19% |
Aug 06, 2012 |
0.7948 |
0.7939 |
0.7963 |
0.7917 |
0.11% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Aug 6 |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-30.3 |
-30.8 |
-29.6 |
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
0.1% |
1.4% |
||
Aug 7 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
406.5B |
365.1B |
|
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
-1.4% |
-1.0% |
1.0% |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-2.9% |
-4.0% |
1.2% |
|
EUR |
Italian Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
-1.7% |
-0.9% |
0.7% |
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
-0.7% |
||
Aug 8 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-17 |
-4 |
-8 |
EUR |
German 10-y Bond Auction |
1.42|1.8 |
1.31|1.5 |
||
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
1.7% |
|
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
Aug 9 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-10.1B |
-8.5B |
-8.4B |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
Aug 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
0.0% |
0.4% |
-2.1% |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
1.3% |
1.4% |
-2.9% |
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Aug 14 |
5:30 |
EUR |
French Prelim GDP q/q |
0.0% |
6:00 |
EUR |
German Prelim GDP q/q |
0.5% |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
|
Aug6 |
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
Click here to read EUR/GBP Technical Analysis.