By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP ended the week very strongly, as the euro was able to gain tremendous mometum after the US nonfarm payroll report showed that the US had increased jobs much higher then forecast. Investor’s hoping that the stall in the US recovery was over, moved into more risk assets. Also the thought of Fed stimulus come September weighted on the USD allowing its trading partners to gain.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Aug 03, 2012 |
0.7919 |
0.7851 |
0.7924 |
0.7844 |
0.87% |
|
Aug 02, 2012 |
0.7851 |
0.7874 |
0.7911 |
0.7824 |
-0.30% |
|
Aug 01, 2012 |
0.7875 |
0.7846 |
0.7894 |
0.7842 |
0.37% |
|
Jul 31, 2012 |
0.7846 |
0.7803 |
0.7865 |
0.7800 |
0.55% |
|
Jul 30, 2012 |
0.7803 |
0.7823 |
0.7828 |
0.7791 |
-0.26% |
This pair through had been locked in the battle of the banks, with the BoE and the ECB both set for decisions in the past week. After both banks avoided any policy changes, the pair traded at 0.7919.
Speculation has been building that the MPC may cut Bank Rate at some point in order to maximize the impact of the QE that has already been delivered. The rationale is that there are billions of pounds parked at the Bank of England in reserves. Some argue that if the remuneration on these reserves is cut, then it will motivate the holders of these reserves to extend new loans or put the cash to work by purchasing riskier / higher yielding assets.
Also the ECB is expected to begin actions this week that might change the economic situation in the EU and help lowering borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 30 – Jul 3 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-y Bond Auction |
5.96|1.3 |
5.82|1.7 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
65.9 |
61.5 |
62.7 |
|
Aug 1 |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.1 |
50.4 |
50.2 |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
48.6 |
48.4 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
121K |
172K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.8 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
|
USD |
FOMC Statement |
||||
|
Aug 2 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
50.9 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
|
EUR |
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
6.65|2.4 |
6.43|3.2 |
||
|
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||||
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
375K |
357K |
|
|
Aug 3 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.0 |
51.6 |
51.3 |
|
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
101K |
64K |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.6 |
52.1 |
52.1 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
8:30 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
|
|
Aug 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
364.9B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
|
|
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-8 |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Report |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
1.6% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.3% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
ECB Monthly Bulletin |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here for further EUR/GBP Forecast.
Originally posted here
