By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP declined most of the week, with overall market sentiment against anything euro. The euro fell against the USD to a two year low, trading below the 1.2150 number on Friday. This pair tumbled on the weakness of the euro. There was little in the way of supportive eco data except an unexpected blip up in Manufacturing Production in the UK.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 13, 2012 |
0.7864 |
0.7903 |
0.7912 |
0.7857 |
-0.49% |
|
Jul 12, 2012 |
0.7903 |
0.7896 |
0.7914 |
0.7882 |
0.09% |
|
Jul 11, 2012 |
0.7896 |
0.7898 |
0.7904 |
0.7871 |
-0.03% |
|
Jul 10, 2012 |
0.7898 |
0.7932 |
0.7934 |
0.7893 |
-0.43% |
|
Jul 09, 2012 |
0.7932 |
0.7926 |
0.7948 |
0.7915 |
0.06% |
This week there is also very little data to support either currency, but news flow from the EU will be more than enough to suffice.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 9 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
-26.3 |
-28.9 |
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
1.3% |
||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-22% |
-15% |
-17% |
|
|
Jul 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
1.4% |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
-9.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
Jul 11 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-48.5B |
-50.6B |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
-1.3M |
-4.3M |
|
|
Jul 12 |
EUR |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.6% |
0.0% |
-1.1% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
350K |
376K |
376K |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
-91.7B |
-124.6B |
|
|
Jul 13 |
CHF |
PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
73.5 |
73.2 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950 EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
7:15 |
CHF |
Industrial Production q/q |
-7.5% |
8.8% |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
2.3 |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.4% |
||
|
Jul 17 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.8% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-16.9 |
||
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
25.6B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
-0.1% |
||
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-43.4 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
||
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.48B |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
4.6B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
||
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
Click here a current EUR/GBP Chart.
Originally posted here
