By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP declined all week as investors shed anything associated with the EU ending the week at 0.7784. The pound was a steady in trading but moved up all week as the euro just lost steam. Eco data in the UK was not so positive and then a dire warning issued by the IMF towards the end of the week upset global markets.
Directors stressed the importance of continuing with efforts to bolster financial stability to anchor a strong and durable recovery, reduce the risk to taxpayers, and limit spillovers from shocks that are transmitted through the UK’s financial system. They emphasized that policies should focus on strengthening bank balance sheets by building capital rather than reducing assets to balance stability and growth considerations. Directors also welcomed the review of banks’ liquidity guidelines to account for the availability of Bank of England liquidity insurance.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jul 20, 2012 |
0.7784 |
0.7811 |
0.7820 |
0.7772 |
-0.35% |
|
Jul 19, 2012 |
0.7811 |
0.7847 |
0.7855 |
0.7793 |
-0.45% |
|
Jul 18, 2012 |
0.7846 |
0.7850 |
0.7870 |
0.7830 |
-0.05% |
|
Jul 17, 2012 |
0.7850 |
0.7850 |
0.7876 |
0.7832 |
0.00% |
|
Jul 16, 2012 |
0.7850 |
0.7861 |
0.7869 |
0.7832 |
-0.14% |
The UK economy is almost universally expected to remain in recession when Q2 GDP figures land on Wednesday next week and thus commence the European GDP reporting cycle over coming weeks. This would be the third consecutive contraction in UK GDP, as all but six out of 36 forecasters expect a negative print.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
EUR |
Core CPI y/y |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
|
|
Jul 17 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
|
GBP |
RPI y/y |
2.8% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-19.6 |
-17.3 |
-16.9 |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.1K |
6.2K |
6.9K |
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
-43.4 |
||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
0.77M |
0.78M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
0.74M |
0.71M |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.8M |
0.5M |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.25B |
2.21B |
2.52B |
|
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
5.3B |
5.5B |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.1% |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
367K |
352K |
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.37M |
4.64M |
4.62M |
|
|
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
-7.9 |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
12.1B |
11.8B |
16.1B |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950 EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 24 |
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.2 |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
47.9 |
|
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.0 |
|
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
49.9 |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
47.1 |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
52.5 |
|
|
Jul 25 |
8:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
105.3 |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
|
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-11 |
|
|
13:00 |
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-13.2 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
369K |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Jul 26 |
6:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.8 |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.7% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
5.9% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
27th-31st |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
|
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.1% |
|
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.16 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jul 23- n/a UK
Jul 23 09:30 Germany
Jul 24 08:30 Netherlands
Jul 24 08:30 Spain
Jul 24 15:30 Italy
Jul 24 17:00 US
Jul 25 09:30 Germany
Jul 25 15:30 Italy
Jul 25 17:00 US
Jul 26 00:30 Japan
Jul 26 09:10 Italy
Jul 27 09:10 Italy
Jul 27 17:00 US
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
