By FXEmpire.com
Introduction:The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP saw the euro climb to close out the week trading at 0.8064, even as negative data flowed from the EU, with the disappointing German ifo it could not outweigh the increase in unemployment in the UK, also at the end of the week, numbers showed that the UK retail sales soared but it was still not enough to secure it strength against the euro. The euro was dancing to the risk aversion piper and the USD.
There was no reason that the euro should have been trading higher against the sterling, although the problems in the UK seem to stem from the BoE, even though they recently announced new measures with the Finance Minister, it is the overall attitude of the BoE which is holding back the UK economy. Recently the IMF director took on the BoE directly saying they need to do more to help stimulate the economy.
This week saw the release of the MPC minutes, unsurprisingly, the minutes evolved in the dovish direction. Given the incremental news on domestic and international activity, inflation and financial market developments, the thrust was always going to turn more dovish.
Nonetheless, the vote was more dovish than expected, with 4 members now dissenting in favor of more QE (compared with one the previous month). Even more striking was that the Governor, Mervyn King was on the losing side. King, Posen and Miles wanted GBP50bn of QE. Meanwhile Fisher dissented for the first time in his MPC career, but only cautiously — opting for GBP25bn of additional asset purchases.
Most MPC members agreed that more economic stimulus was required either immediately, or it would probably become warranted.
So the key questions to come out of these minutes are:
What kind of further policy loosening? Are the additional liquidity measures announced in last week’s Mansion House speech enough?
Furthermore, with even more economic stimulus likely to come from the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (announcement expected Friday 29th) does the MPC really need to conduct more QE as well?
Have developments since the June MPC meeting made the case for more policy ease stronger or weaker?
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 19-22, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Importance |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 19 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-16.9 |
4.0 |
10.8 |
||
|
Jun. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
-3.0K |
-12.8K |
|
|
17:30 |
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
||
|
19:15 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||
|
23:45 |
NZD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
||
|
Jun. 21 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.4% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
387K |
380K |
389K |
||
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
4.57M |
4.62M |
||
|
Jun. 22 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
105.3 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.7 |
|
25th-30th |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
|
|
Jun 26 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-18.8B |
|
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-2.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
64.9 |
|
|
Jun 27 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.2% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
32.4K |
|
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
21 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-5.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Current Account |
-8.5B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
|
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
0.81 |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.5% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 25 09:10 Norway
Jun 25 09:30 Germany
Jun 25 10:00 Belgium
Jun 25 15:30 Italy
Jun 26 00:30 Japan
Jun 26 08:30 Holland
Jun 26 08:30 Spain
Jun 26 09:10 Italy
Jun 26 09:30 UK
Jun 26 14:30 UK
Jun 26 17:00 US
Jun 27 09:10 Italy
Jun 27 09:10 Sweden
Jun 27 17:00 US
Jun 28 09:10 Italy
Jun28 17:00 US
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
