By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8094 after crossing back over the all important 0.80 mark. The euro had fallen to trade below 0.80 some 10days ago and was not able to gather enough momentum to move back above.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jun 01, 2012 |
0.8094 |
0.8028 |
0.8096 |
0.8018 |
0.81% |
|
May 31, 2012 |
0.8029 |
0.7992 |
0.8036 |
0.7991 |
0.46% |
|
May 30, 2012 |
0.7992 |
0.7982 |
0.8000 |
0.7972 |
0.13% |
|
May 29, 2012 |
0.7982 |
0.7993 |
0.8006 |
0.7981 |
-0.14% |
|
May 28, 2012 |
0.7993 |
0.8015 |
0.8037 |
0.7984 |
-0.27% |
It was a week of negative sentiment and data for the eurozone, as investors and markets continued to worry about Spain, France and Italy, with Ireland in the back of their minds.
Spanish banks continued to show larger losses then estimated driving yields higher and higher as politicians and international organizations bickered all week.
Italy saw its rates surge over the 6.5% rate as contagion from Spain spilled over. Greece saw polls flip and flop with investor’s sentiment flipping just as fast. No one can accurately predict the outcome of the poll or the future for Greece.
In the UK the economy became suspect on comments from the IMF and the OECD pushing the BofE to take a more aggressive role. This week’s highlights will be the Queens Jubilee and the BofE rate decision and statements on June 7th.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Major Economic Events for the week of May 28- June 1 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and the Franc
|
Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
Tuesday, May 29 |
||||||||
|
06:00 |
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
21 |
-7 |
-6 |
|||
|
Wednesday, May 30 |
||||||||
|
03:00 |
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
0.81 |
0.48 |
0.43 |
|||
|
Thursday, May 31 |
||||||||
|
01:45 |
CHF |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|||
|
02:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
|||
|
05:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|||
|
Friday, June 01 |
||||||||
|
03:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.1% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
|||
|
03:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.4 |
46.4 |
46.9 |
|||
|
04:00 |
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|||
|
04:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
49.7 |
50.2 |
|||
|
05:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.0% |
11.0% |
11.0% |
|||
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950 EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 5 |
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
2.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
6th-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
55.8 |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
2.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
-3.3% |
|
|
Jun 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
235.6B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.3 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
325B |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
TBD |
GBP |
MPC Rate Statement |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
Jun 8 |
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-1.5% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Consumer Inflation Expectations |
3.5% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
