EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continued its fall against the USD today, after gaining some strength in yesterdays post holiday trading, on negative sentiment from the NFP report on Friday. The euro fell from the high of today of 1.3144 to trade at 1.3097.

In the US Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech was a non starter, Bernanke called Monday night for better regulation of the so-called shadow banking industry, which performs banking functions like credit intermediation and maturity transformation without the protection afforded by deposit insurance and access to the discount window. During the financial crisis, the repo market, the asset-backed commercial paper market and money-market funds all suffered panics to some degree. There were two minute reports released today. A small-business sentiment gauge dropped in March after six monthly gains in a row, on diminished optimism over employment, inventories and earnings. The National Federation of Independent Business small-business optimism index fell to 92.5

Job openings at U.S. workplaces increased to 3.5 million in February from 3.48 million in January, the U.S. Labor Department released. Compared with the prior year, job openings rose 16% — private openings increased 16% to 3.13 million.

The overwhelming market news today was from the eurozone, as worries over the size of the firewall turned investors to look at safe havens pushing the dollar, gold and the yen upwards.

Spain and Italy took the spotlight. Yields on Spanish and Italian government bond yields continued to rise on Tuesday as financial markets in Europe reopened after a four-day Easter break. Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds jumped 9 basis points to 5.83%.

Private equity in Europe remains in the doldrums as prolonged economic uncertainty and frozen credit markets keep dealmakers at bay, according to research released Tuesday. The first quarter saw just 157 deals worth a total EUR8.1 billion, which is a 50% fall in volume.

The euro should continue to decline to trade in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Economic Data for April 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-10%	-12%	-13%
USD	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
AUD	NAB Business Confidence	3	1
CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	5.3B	-1.3B	-31.5B
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
CHF	Unemployment Rate	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
DKK	Danish CPI (YoY)	2.70%	2.70%	2.80%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
NOK	Norwegian Core Inflation (MoM)	0.40%	0.30%	0.70%
NOK	Norwegian CPI (MoM)	-0.10%	-0.10%	1.00%

Economic Events for April, 11, 2012

02:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) -3.5% -1.2%

Home Loans record the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes. It is a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

13:15 CAD Housing Starts 200K 201K

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.

13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.8% 0.4%

The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.

19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -201.5B -232.0B

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.

Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012

Apr 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Apr 11 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund

Apr 11 09:10 Sweden Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills

Apr 11 09:30 Swiss Bond auction

Apr 11 09:30 UK Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt

Apr 11 10:00 Norway Details T-bill auction on Apr 16

Apr 11 14:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18

Apr 11 17:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt

Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19

Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:

Originally posted here