By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD continued to climb against the greenback today. Even as Spain begins to implode on the bailout scene, the USD could not muster the strength to hold down the euro.
Economists, Politicians and Speculators are all beginning to question the economic recovery in the US. In the past three years the economy has followed the same path hitting what is being called the spring stall as each spring the economic revival seems to hit the wall and lose steam.
This week continues to show mounting problems after a week of disappointing economic data, the last few days saw a below forecast jobs report and now an under forecast GDP report.
While in Europe, problems continue to mount in Spain, even as the Spanish government denies the requirement of a bailout and today, forecast economic growth in 2013. All the while their cost of money continues to grow.
Standard & Poor’s lowered Spain’s long-term sovereign credit rating by two notches to BBB+ from A with a negative outlook. The ratings agency said the downgrade reflects concerns about mounting risks
Spain will enjoy a small rise in economic growth next year and post a primary budget surplus excluding debt interest payments, Spain’s finance minister said Friday.
Economic Data for April 27, 2012 actual. v. forecast
|
JPY |
Unemployment Rate |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
2.4% |
-1.6% |
|
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
10.3% |
9.8% |
3.4% |
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
-2.9% |
-1.9% |
2.9% |
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
0.40 |
0.26 |
0.09 |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
5.84% |
5.57% |
|
|
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
1.5% |
2.0% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.2% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
Economic Events for April 30, 2012 for the European and US Markets
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index 0.2% 0.1%
The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 61.8 62.2
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
May 01 09:30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt
May 02 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
May 02 09:30 Portugal Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills
May 02 13:00 3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y Bonds on May 10
May 02 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on May 09
May 03 08:30 Spain Bono auction
May 03 08:50 France OAT auction
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
