By FXEmpire.com
The EUR/USD is finally coming back to reality. After jubilation on the thought the ECB President Draghi, could single handily save the monetary union, which pushed the euro up over 100pips in just a few hours. It has become more and more evident, that even with his good intentions, that the ECB has limits, not just in their manpower but also in their mandate, after all a central bank is a central bank first and last.
Markets were disappointed when the ECB offered no direct plan at its meeting, but then began to think of Draghi as a savior and pumped the euro back up again. As days pass so do traders hopes in Mr. Draghi, as he cannot accomplish everything himself. The overall EU doesn’t seem willing to deal with Spain, Greece or Italy. Again their lack of leadership continues to allow the crisis to continue. Recently every central bank issuing a economic statement has stated that problems stemming from the ongoing crisis in the eurozone are affecting their economy.
Now we are seeing China tumble due to the ongoing European crisis and the ever so slow recovery in the US, which has also been blamed on EU leadership. (see data below)
Markets are now hoping for stimulus from the PBoC, but the only obvious goal for the euro is to finally hit bottom, a place where politicians and bankers cannot ignore the crisis around them or talk up markets.
Fitch commented today that even with the Spanish banking rescue senior debt holders might face losses. Expect EUR trading to be volatile but somewhat range-bound in the near-term.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.7% |
2.2% |
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-2.9% |
-2.5% |
-2.1% |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.4% |
20.5% |
20.4% |
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.2% |
9.8% |
9.5% |
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
13.1% |
13.7% |
13.7% |
Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Aug. 10 |
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
|||
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
25.10B |
35.10B |
31.70B |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
||||
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-2.9% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
-2.4% |
-1.5% |
-3.0% |
|
Employment Change |
-30.4K |
9.0K |
7.3K |
||
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-3 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
-0.6% |
||
5:30 |
EUR |
0.0% |
||
6:00 |
EUR |
0.5% |
||
6:45 |
EUR |
0.1% |
||
7:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
-19.6 |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
0.0% |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
-22.3 |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-0.4% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
||
14:00 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
3.7% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.9% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
7.4 |
||
13:00 |
USD |
55.0B |
||
13:15 |
USD |
78.9% |
||
13:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
||
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
3.3% |
|
9:00 |
CHF |
-42.5 |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
12:30 |
USD |
361K |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
14:00 |
USD |
-12.9 |
||
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.4% |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
10.9B |
||
13:55 |
USD |
72.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here