By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is finally coming back to reality. After jubilation on the thought the ECB President Draghi, could single handily save the monetary union, which pushed the euro up over 100pips in just a few hours. It has become more and more evident, that even with his good intentions, that the ECB has limits, not just in their manpower but also in their mandate, after all a central bank is a central bank first and last.

Markets were disappointed when the ECB offered no direct plan at its meeting, but then began to think of Draghi as a savior and pumped the euro back up again. As days pass so do traders hopes in Mr. Draghi, as he cannot accomplish everything himself. The overall EU doesn’t seem willing to deal with Spain, Greece or Italy. Again their lack of leadership continues to allow the crisis to continue. Recently every central bank issuing a economic statement has stated that problems stemming from the ongoing crisis in the eurozone are affecting their economy.

Now we are seeing China tumble due to the ongoing European crisis and the ever so slow recovery in the US, which has also been blamed on EU leadership. (see data below)

Markets are now hoping for stimulus from the PBoC, but the only obvious goal for the euro is to finally hit bottom, a place where politicians and bankers cannot ignore the crisis around them or talk up markets.

Fitch commented today that even with the Spanish banking rescue senior debt holders might face losses. Expect EUR trading to be volatile but somewhat range-bound in the near-term.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY)

1.8%

1.7%

2.2%

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.1%

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM)

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.6%

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

20.4%

20.5%

20.4%

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

9.2%

9.8%

9.5%

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)

13.1%

13.7%

13.7%

Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 10

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance

25.10B

35.10B

31.70B

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.1%

JPY

BoJ Monthly Report

EUR

German CPI (MoM)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

EUR

German CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

GBP

PPI Input (MoM)

1.3%

1.5%

-2.9%

GBP

PPI Input (YoY)

-2.4%

-1.5%

-3.0%

CAD

Employment Change

-30.4K

9.0K

7.3K

USD

Import Price Index (MoM)

-0.6%

0.1%

-2.4%

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.3%

7.0%

7.2%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

5:30

EUR

French Prelim GDP q/q

0.0%

6:00

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

0.5%

6:45

EUR

French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q

0.1%

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.3%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-19.6

9:00

EUR

Flash GDP q/q

0.0%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

0.6%

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

-22.3

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 13 09:10 Italy

Aug 13 09:10 Norway

Aug 13 09:30 Germany

Aug 14 09:10 Greece

Aug 14 09:10 Italy

Aug 14 09:30 Belgium

Aug 14 14:30 UK

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.

Originally posted here