By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD continued to gather momentum trading at 1.2430. Market mood was positive again today extending recent gains on escalating hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) could buy bonds of debt ridden economies of Spain and Italy to ease debt contagion in the region. Looking into the evening session, no major data are slated for release from the U.S and therefore, market moves are likely to remain docile. With the week thin on major economic data from the U.S, all eyes are pinned on the series of economic releases from the world’s second largest economy China, and any uncanny figures could have a significant downside bearing on the market moves. With yields on Spanish and Italian bonds still hovering near unacceptable levels, market watchers would be keenly following bond auctions in the respective countries to take a stance on the situation in Europe.
There is virtually no eco data due in the US and very little is expected on the US side to support the USD, although markets did read into Ben Bernanke’s speech yesterday, the possibility of some additional QE.
Markets are pretty quiet globally as well, with equities in Europe and Asia subdued although there has been a decent ongoing rally in Italy and Spain. US 10-year yields are grinding higher for a second consecutive session The DXY is slightly lower with the euro trading above 1.24 even as we received fairly weak economic data from key European countries today.
Italy’s GDP came in at -0.7% q/q during Q2 2012, slightly less bad than markets had anticipated (the consensus among forecasters polled by Bloomberg was for a -0.8% q/q decline) but still a slow pace overall and the fourth consecutive negative quarter-on-quarter outcome. Don’t look now, but Italy’s GDP has contracted in quarter-on-quarter terms for 10 of the past 18 quarters dating back to Q1 2008
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data August 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 07 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||||
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-3.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-2.9% |
-4.1% |
1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-4.3% |
-5.0% |
-1.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
-1.7% |
-1.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-4.0% |
7.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
-8 |
|
|
9:30 |
GBP |
|||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.6% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.4B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-48.7B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
-1.9% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-2.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-2.7% |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
-59.7B |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
