Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.85B 2.95B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
09:30 GBP Construction PMI 52.9 53.2
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction industry. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the construction industry; a reading below indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the construction section in the UK. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP
10:00 EUR PPI (MoM) -0.1% 0.2%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 1.0% 2.3%
Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 373K 377K
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 0.9% -2.5%
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3565K 3554K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis Feb. 2, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD traded over the 1.3200 figure hitting a high of 1.3202 but could not sustain the move and plunged to a low of 1.3027 before leveling off at 1.3174
The euro was able to pick up momentum again after falling below the 1.30 mark when the ADP payroll report was released in the US. The report showed the addtion of jobs in both the public and private sector but were below esimates.
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 170,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from November to December was revised down to 292,000 from the initially reported 325,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 152,000 in January
European manufacturing PMI reports all surprised today coming in above forecast. German also came in above forecast.
There is still no agreement in Greece and now the new plan offers creditors incentives based on improved GDP for Greece.
An aide said: “The prime minister is meeting troika representatives on Friday and wants to ram home the message of how urgent things are following our discussions in Brussels…..This is not going to be an easy week.”
Time is short. Athens faces EUR14.5bn in bond repayments on March 20. The goal is to hammer out a deal for a second package of rescue funds worth EUR130bn, and the private sector bond swap deal that will wipe EUR100bn from Greece’s debt, ready for at a Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on Monday.
The euro will stay close to the 1.30 range unless the US unemployment data on Thursday is disasterous.
Today’s Economic Reports Results
GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% Unexpected Drop
CHF Retail Sales (YoY) 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% Unexpected Drop
CHF SVME PMI 47.3 51.8 49.1 Unexpected Drop
EUR French Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5 48.5
EUR German Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.9 50.9 Above Forecast
EUR Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.7 48.7 Above Forecast
GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 50.1 49.7 Above Forecast
EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
