By FX Empire.com
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
Monday is a very quiet day for economic news. Watch for a special EU meeting to handle the Greek Bailout
06:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD falling against the greenback. Earlier in the day the EU refused to consider the Greek bailout agreement as the terms agreed to amongst the Greek political parties did not satisfy the terms of the bailout. They had made progress, but fell short of the terms set forth. The EU told Greece Finance Minister that they need to meet 100% of the original plan and meet all financial criteria. Merkel also signaled last evening, that a Greece default would not be terrible and could be contained.
The euro fell to $1.3191 from $1.3287 and continues to fall, although an early morning report in the US which showed the U.S. trade balance fell more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted -48.8B last month from -47.1B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -47.8B.
Economic Data Thursday Feb 9, 2012 ( actual v forecast )
|
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
1.00 |
-3.00 |
|
|
KRW |
South Korean Interest Rate Decision |
3.25% |
3.25% |
3.25% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
4.5% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-7.1B |
-8.4B |
-8.9B |
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
358K |
370K |
373K |
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3515K |
3525K |
3451K |
|
MXN |
Mexican CPI (YoY) |
4.0% |
4.0% |
3.8% |
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction
Feb 13 10:10 Norway T-bill auction
Feb 13 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2012 Bubill
Feb 13 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 20
Feb 14 09:30 Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL
Feb 14 09:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Feb 14 10:10 Greece 3M T-bill auction
Feb 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Feb 14 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
