Economic Events: (GMT)
06:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) -0.2% 0.3%
07:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) -0.3% 0.5%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.8% 1.9%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 3.2K 1.2K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.
Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.4% 0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
The Bank of England (BOE) Inflation Report sets out the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections upon which the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions and presents an assessment of the prospects for U.K. inflation over the following two years. The report is released quarterly.
10:30 GBP BoE Gov King Speaks
Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King (July 2003 – June 2013) is to speak. As head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, King has more influence over sterling’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 14.2 13.5
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
14:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 62.3B 59.8B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.
14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% 0.4%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
17:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3103 down for the day, falling from the high of 1.3216. The euro would was only supported by the surprising economic data from the US with retails sales coming in under forecast. It has been a busy day for the pair.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will host the summit on February 14 in Beijing with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
Ahead of the meeting, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told the BBC that Europe’s “debt issue is at a critical juncture.”
Late Monday, Moody’s Investors Service cut its ratings on six European countries including Italy, Portugal and Spain, and lowered the outlook on the United Kingdom, Austria and France. Spain bore the brunt of the ratings agency’s moves, suffering a two-notch downgrade, as Moody’s said it was skeptical the government would be able to reach its deficit target.
S&P downgraded 15 Spanish banks in total, and cut its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment on Spain to group ‘5? from ‘4?. Fitch also downgraded the banks.
The European Union may punish Spain’s government, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, by May for holding off on austerity measures ahead of a regional election in March, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing a source familar with the situation. The report also cited three senior European Union officials, who said the European Commission thinks Spain overstated 2011 deficit figures to make this year’s deficit look better, and that it’s also moving too slow in addressing a deterioration in public finances that is expected this year.
The decision by Moody’s Investors Service to put Britain’s triple-A credit rating on negative outlook is a “reality check” for the country’s political leaders, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told the BBC on Tuesday.
German investor sentiment rose more sharply than expected in February to post its first positive reading since May, the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, reported Tuesday. The ZEW expectations index rose to 5.4 from minus 21.6 in January. Economists had forecast a February reading of minus 11.6.
European Union officials and leaders of the euro-zone’s central bank still haven’t hammered out key details of a bailout of Greece, two days before an important meeting to approve the next round of bailout funds for Greece. Though the Greek Parliament has unveiled a new austerity plan that calls for severe cuts in spending, pensions and wages, several things must still be determined.
The US Commerce Department said retailers’ sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in January, short of forecasts for a 1% increase, mostly because of weakness in automobile sales. The report threw some cold water on the fragile economy whose recovery had finally started to gain pace, particularly as reflected in growth of the nation’s labor market and gave investors a reason to take some profits.
If the pair fall below 1.31 number they will most likely hit the 1.30 level and hold. Wednesday is a very busy day on the economic calendar.
Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-16% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.1% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-8.1 |
-21.1 |
-32.5 |
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
BRL |
Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.7% |
7.6% |
6.7% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
