Economic Events: (GMT)
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -32 -33
Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
07:00 CHF Consumption Indicator 0.81
The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current sitaution of the Swissie this report will be important this week.
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% -1.0%
German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
07:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.4%
French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -7K -22K
The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.
German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.6%
The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.
09:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) 0.0% 0.1%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Tenta EUR Spanish Business Confidence -21 -20
Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) 0.3% -0.6%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals 1.2B 1.0B
M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.
Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.3%
The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 63.0 62.5
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.2 64.5
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.3118, down from $1.3216 in late North American dealings on Friday. And continues to fall.
The dollar strengthened during European trading hours Monday, as investors shifted into the U.S. currency amid jitters over Greece and as a European Union summit was getting underway.
Germany’s finance minister issued an unusually blunt warning that the euro zone might refuse to grant Greece a fresh bailout, pushing Athens into default unless it persuades Europe it can overhaul its state and economy.
“Greece needs to decide,” Wolfgang Sch?uble said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, when asked whether the euro zone would grant or withhold the second bailout package for the country since 2010, expected to be in excess of EUR130 billion ($172 billion).
Europe is “prepared to support Greece” with the new loan package, Mr. Sch?uble said, but he warned: “Unless Greece implements the necessary decisions and doesn’t just announce them…there’s no amount of money that can solve the problem.”
The remarks came as German officials last week floated the radical idea of appointing a European “budget commissioner” with veto powers over Greece’s spending, partially suspending Greece’s national sovereignty over its budget, in return for aid.
Stubbornly high budget deficits mean that Greece is struggling to restore its solvency, despite an expected deal with bondholders that could reduce its private-sector debt by up to EUR100 billion. Many economists say euro-zone governments and the European Central Bank will also eventually have to forgive some of what Greece owes them.
As the EU Summit begins on Monday afternoon, no Greece deal is on the table, the parties involved are all in Athens and not in Brussels to present a final deal. The markets are very worried. In the meantime the IMF is reassessing Greece’s needs to determine how much money they will need, expectations are that they will require atleast an additional 10billion euros over the agreed upon 130billion.
Markets are very worried.
Also on Tuesday a huge amount of economic data will be released.
The dollar is gaining on the euro today and is expected to maintain strenght throughout the earlier part of the week.
Upcoming Govt Bond Sales Dates
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
