By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2567 at the end of the European session. US markets will close early on Tuesday and are closed on Wednesday for the 4th of July holiday. Trading will remain thin for the balance of the week, even though there are major events on Thursday and Friday. There was very little in the way of eco data today and tomorrow’s calendar is thin also.
EUR is flat from yesterday’s close and down 0.6% since Friday as markets react to weak data and headlines regarding Finland and the Netherlands’ opposition to ESM sovereign bond purchases, in addition to Finland’s request for collateral in exchange for aid, in a scenario reminiscent to that which was seen during last year’s second Greek bailout. Spain, Greece and Italy have been quiet and remained off the front pages since Friday’s announcement, in the hopes that this plan will be approved. EUR is trading around 1.2600, and last week’s rally failed to reach even the high from mid-June that followed the Greek election. Recent data have been weak, with another increase to the EU unemployment rate, now at 11.1% and with PMI’s remaining near 3 year lows. This week’s key event for EUR remains the ECB meeting on Thursday, where expectations are for a 25bp cut in the policy rate to 0.75%. While a rate cut had been discussed at the last meeting, a majority of the governing council had voted to maintain rates. It has since been rumored that a majority now favors easing rates.
On Friday the US Nonfarm payroll data is set to be released, markets are hoping for a positive report to help jump start the US economy, but on the flip side, investors believe if the report is negative that the Fed’s will be pushed into action.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Releases actual v. forecast July 3, 2012 ( today was almost void of eco data )
|
Jul. 03 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
27.3% |
5.1% |
-7.6% |
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 4 Jul 5 |
8:00 |
EUR |
46.8 |
46.8 |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
53.0 |
53.3 |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-1.9% |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
||
|
11:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
1.00% |
||
|
12:15 |
USD |
101K |
133K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
385K |
386K |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
53.1 |
53.7 |
||
|
15:00 |
USD |
-0.1M |
|||
|
Jul 6 |
7:00 |
CHF |
303.8B |
||
|
7:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-2.1% |
-2.5% |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.3% |
-2.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
92K |
69K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here for further EUR/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
