By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD has moved up in today’s session, which has not been expected at all. After investors turned negative on the Spanish bailout, the EU and ECB have turned on the PR campaign, all representative and directors all giving speeches and statement about how great a move this has been for Spain and the EU.
Movement in EUR has remained limited ahead of this weekend’s Greek election, generally bound between 1.2400 and 1.2600, and expect EUR to weaken over both the near term and the medium term, given the significant challenges that remain unresolved.
The major action in Europe has been in bunds, which continued to sell off for a second consecutive day as Germany auctioned 10-year notes. The bid-to cover on the auction was fairly low (1.4) and the leverage yield at auction was 1.52%, a full 10bps higher than where 10-year bunds closed yesterday (1.42%) and a full 40bps higher than the June 1 all-time low of 1.12%. Spanish and Italian treasuries have been much quieter, with yields on both falling slightly today, albeit from very elevated levels (Spain’s 10-year yields: 6.7%, Italy: 6.1%).
Inflation fell in France during May, with CPI contracting 0.1% m/m (2.3% y/y), in line with Scotia’s forecast. The decrease was led by a fall in energy prices, which contracted by 1.5% on the back of lower oil products costs (-2.5%). The same happened in Spain, where CPI fell by 0.2% on the strength of lower personal transport costs (-1.6%), bringing the 12-month change in CPI to 1.9%. Revised German CPI data for May confirmed that prices fell by -0.2% m/m bringing the 12-month comparison to 1.9%, and similarly Italy CPI was flat on the month. The take-away is that CPI in ‘core’ Europe is running at very low levels and is likely to continue to decline as the effects of lower oil prices work their way through the price indices over the next number of months. That gives the ECB room to provide further monetary accommodation – whether conventional or unconventional – without having to worry about near-term inflation implications.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data for June 13, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Importance |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 13 |
00:00 |
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
||||
|
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
0.30% |
0.80% |
|||
|
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
||
|
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-1.0% |
-0.1% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-1.0% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
1.1% |
1.9% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 14 |
7:30 |
CHF |
|
|
|
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
||||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
377K |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.0% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-124B |
|||
|
Jun 15 |
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.6B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
17.1 |
|||
|
13:00 |
USD |
36.2B |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
79.2% |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
1.1% |
|||
|
13:55 |
USD |
79.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 14 09:10 Italy
Jun 14 09:30 UK
Jun 14 15:00 US
Jun 14 17:00 US
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
