By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD added a few pips today to trade at 1.2490 challenging the 1.25 resistance.
US Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 8,000 to 69,000 in last month as against previous level of 77,000 in April. But unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent in May from 8.1 percent in April. Personal Spending rose by 0.3 percent in April with respect to 0.2 percent a month earlier.
US Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 54-mark in May from 53.9-level in April. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was at 53.5-mark in May compared to 54.8-level in previous month. Construction Spending remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in April.
In the last week, the US Dollar Index (DX) strengthened sharply on account of rising global economic woes. US equities lost more than 2 percent on Friday and this factor too boosted demand for the low yielding dollar.
Heightening European economic worries led to pressure on the euro in the last week as the currency slipped around 0.7 percent. Economic data from the eurozone was also discouraging and led to views in the markets that the 17-nation eurozone would slowdown further, considering the unresolved debt crisis.
Italian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 44.8-level in May as against previous mark of 43.8 in April. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate rose to 10.2 percent in April from 10.1 percent in March. European Final Manufacturing was at 45.1-level in last month compared to 45-mark in April. European Unemployment Rate increased to 11 percent in April with respect to 10.9 percent in March.
The flagging economic indicators from the U.S and China are proving to be a headwind for investors, who are already unnerved by the escalating debt concerns in the Euro region. Looking into this week, key central bank actions are scheduled, which could entice market forces. After a disappointing payroll numbers from the U.S on Friday, market onlookers would be keenly looking forward to the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Congress on Thursday, where a possible hint of QE3 could be on cards. With European economies battered by rising debts, all eyes would be on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, where President Draghi is expected to retain the rates at 1 percent but could initiate bond buying action amid spreading contagion. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to meet EU commissioner Jose Barroso in Berlin today evening to discuss on current situation in Europe, including the preparation for the next European Council meeting June 28-29 in Brussels. Overall, the week could be held hostage to events unfolding in Europe, although hopes of a QE3 could rejuvenate market entities.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 4, 2012 actual v. forecast (virtually no eco data in Europe or the US today)
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 04 |
JPY |
Monetary Base (YoY) |
2.4% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
||
|
AUD |
Company Gross Profits (QoQ) |
-4.0% |
-2.0% |
-6.5% |
|
|
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) |
-2.40% |
-0.80% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 5 |
9:00 |
EUR |
0.3% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.2% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
||
|
Jun 6 |
6th-8th |
GBP |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
55.8 |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.8% |
||
|
11:45 |
EUR |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
18:00 |
USD |
|||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
-3.3% |
||
|
Jun 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
235.6B |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
0.1% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
53.3 |
||
|
TBD |
EUR |
|||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
325B |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
TBD |
GBP |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
383K |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
|||
|
Jun 8 |
8:30 |
GBP |
-1.5% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
3.5% |
||
|
TBD |
GBP |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-51.8B |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 09:30 Belgium
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here for further EUR/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
