By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD picked up a bit of strength in late afternoon trading, the euro is currently exchanging at 1.2937 slightly up from yesterday’s close.
The global growth outlook has been hampered by weaker than expected data from China ( see charts below), India and Brazil, suggesting that if Europe is struggling and the BRICs are weakening current estimates might still be too strong. This combined, with news that JP Morgan has taken a $2bn loss on trading mistakes at a risk unit are weighing on markets. In this environment the market is weaker but showing impressive stability, with equities down just 0.5%, bond yields down across Europe (except Greece) and the USD was up in Asian and European sessions but declined slightly after the US consumer sentiment report released today, surprised the markets showing consumers were the happiest they have been since 2008. Perhaps this has to do with the fall of the price of crude oil, which means lower prices at the pumps.
Traders, were energized by this, and had built some confidences as they moved from the USD to riskier asset, but not in droves, just a little enough for the euro to pick up a few pips.
Between the political upheavals and turmoil in the eurozone and the lackluster results from China, it will be a while before the euro can muster much strength.
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Economic Data Released May 11, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
Nationwide Consumer Confidence |
44 |
52 |
53 |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.2% |
20.5% |
20.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.3% |
12.0% |
11.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
14.1% |
15.2% |
15.2% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-1.5% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.2% |
1.9% |
5.6% |
|
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
0.30% |
1.20% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Employment Change |
58.2K |
7.0K |
82.3K |
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
77.8 |
76.2 |
76.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
May 14 |
07:00 |
EUR |
Finnish CPI (YoY) |
2.90% |
|
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.90% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.5% |
|
May 15 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
07:45 |
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.8B |
|
|
May 16 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.1% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
3.6K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
Portuguese Unemployment Rate |
14.00% |
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Date Time Country
May 14 08:30 Spain
May 14 09:10 Italy
May 14 09:10 Slovakia
May 14 09:10 Norway
May 14 09:30 Germany
May 14 10:00 Norway
May 15 09:30 Belgium
May 15 09:30 UK
May 16 08:50 France
May 16 09:10 Sweden
May 16 09:30 Germany
May 16 09:50 France
May 16 14:30 Sweden
May 17 08:30 Spain
May 17 15:00 US
May 17 17:00 US
Originally posted here
