By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD held pretty steady in today’s session trading at 1.2535 down 0.0007

There is a eerie calm to markets, with most currencies having had relatively quiet sessions in Asia and Europe. Equities are mixed, but there is significant weakness in Spanish markets, with the IBEX hitting 9-year lows and 10-year bond yields hitting new ytd highs.

Beyond that safe haven bond yields are lower and commodities are generally higher. There have been no major news headlines, with most of the focus on rumors of a Chinese stimulus package, the Spanish banking sector, an earthquake in Italy and ongoing European uncertainty. In this environment the USD is mixed but most currencies are entering the North American session within +/-0.1% of yesterday’s close. US Consumer confidence was reported lower than forecast, disappointing markets, but the calm still remained.

It is like the coming of a storm, or impending doom. Wednesday starts the end of the month eco data flow, and there has been very little noise from Spain or Italy, expect them to pop up in news flows and affect the markets.

Early indications from German regional CPI suggest that there was a -0.2% m/m drop almost across the board. Yesterday, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy reiterated that there will be no need for a European rescue of the Spanish banking system. The current focus appears to be the plan for Spain to raise funds, transfer that debt to the banks in exchange for equity, and have those banks then post the debt with the central bank in exchange for cash. Realistically, there is little new news for markets to chew today, with the focus turning towards ECB President Draghi’s comments tomorrow and the Irish referendum on Thursday

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

May 29

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

5.8%

6.3%

10.3%

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

6.9%

-9.4%

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

21

-7

-6

EUR

German CPI (MoM)

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

EUR

German CPI (YoY)

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

70.0

68.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Previous

May 30

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.40

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

3.2%

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.4B

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-31

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 30 09:10 Italy

May 30 09:10 Sweden

Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.

Originally posted here