By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD fell to 1.2390 today, and is holding at 1.2400 a 22 month low and continuing to decline.
Intensifying concerns over Spain’s debt dampened the market sentiments, sending commodities and equities down. Euro hit a 23 month low after Spanish bond yields increased, raising worries that it may spiral up to unsustainable levels.
The euro has continued to spiral downwards and may break the 1.23 price today. While the USD on risk aversion safe haven mode, continues to climb with the Dollar Index was 82.98. The USD was hardly phased by disappointing housing data out today.
Commodities dropped as the USD gained. Spot gold hit a one week low earlier today stretching the previous session’s steep decline, tracking weakness in euro. In the MCX, however, gold was moving in the tight ranges. While, depreciating rupee provided lower level support, weakness seen in the international market capped gains. Market was waiting for fresh cues for further directional moves. Base metal complex in LME as well as in Shanghai were in red. Base metals in LME dropped more than one per cent except for nickel and aluminum. China indicating that it was unlikely to provide a massive stimulus measures to prop up economic growth weighed on the market too amid lingering concerns over euro zone debt crisis. Worries over China and Spain dragged down crude oil prices too. In Nymex prices fell below $90 a barrel while Brent crude oil below $106 a barrel.
US Pending Home Sales data came in well below forecast dropping 5.5%. Last month’s Pending Home Sales data indicated a recovery in the US housing market. For the month of April, it is expected to remain unchanged on a month on month basis, while on a year on year basis; it is estimated to grow by 22 per cent. Apart from home sales data, European Central Bank President is scheduled to speak at Brussels Think Tank. This event will be highly watched for its indications on moves to fight the persisting debt crisis. Meanwhile, rise in Spanish bonds yields fueled worries that it may spiral up to unsustainable levels, adding further to woes in Euro Zone. China’s comments over its proposed stimulus package to bolster economic growth hurt the investor sentiments further. As the week progresses, the coming days are expected to be more action packed with slew of economic data set to be released especially from the US including non-farm payrolls.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for May 30, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 30 |
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|||
|
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) |
5.5% |
3.0% |
-3.4% |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
0.81 |
0.48 |
0.43 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
6.03% |
5.66% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Previous |
|
|
May 31 |
5:45 |
CHF |
GDP q/q |
0.1% |
|
31st-3rd |
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.8% |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
-2.9% |
|
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
19K |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Est?mate y/y |
2.6% |
|
|
12:15 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
119K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim GDP q/q |
2.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
370K |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
56.2 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
0.9M |
|
|
Jun 1 |
TBD |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
4.2% |
|
|
7:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
46.9 |
|
|
7:45 |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
43.8 |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
10.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
115K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.0% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
54.8 |
Government Bond Auctions
May 31 14:30 Sweden
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan Jun 05 09:30
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
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Originally posted here
