By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.
The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
- Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
- FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The EUR/USD continues to decline falling over the weekend to 1.2914 For the end of this week, the context for EUR/USD trading was not much different from what was on the table over the previous days. There were some small positive’ headlines on secondary issues (Greece receiving a payout of EUR4.2B under the current rescue package,
Spain partially nationalized Bankia). At the same time, there were few indications of any progress whether or not Greece would stay committed to the EU/IMF bailout. EUR/USD tried to move away from the lows, but a first test of the previous range bottom (1.2974) was rejected. US eco data were mixed and had only a very limited impact on global markets. During the afternoon, there were several headlines on the screens that most Greek parties still wanted the country to stay in the EMU. Pasok leader Venizelos also indicated that he would try to form a government with support of pro-EMU parties. Once again, there is no concrete evidence that there was any common ground to form a new government and that such a government would be able to stay on speaking terms with the sponsors of the bailout plan. Nevertheless, markets showed some relief. European equities returned into positive territory and EUR/USD went for a retest of the 1.2974 resistance. The test was once again rejected. So, EUR/USD drifted again south and closed the session at 1.2936, little changed from the 1.2929 close on Wednesday.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
May 10 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
15.5K |
-5.5K |
44.0K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
1.0B |
0.3B |
||
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
-50.0B |
-45.4B |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
369K |
368K |
|
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
||||
|
May 11 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.5091 USD on 03 Dec 2009.
Average: 1.3709 USD over this period.
Lowest: 1.19 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
May 14 |
07:00 |
EUR |
Finnish CPI (YoY) |
2.90% |
|
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.90% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.5% |
|
May 15 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
07:45 |
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.8B |
|
|
May 16 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.1% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
3.6K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
Portuguese Unemployment Rate |
14.00% |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 08:30 Spain
May 14 09:10 Italy
May 14 09:10 Slovakia
May 14 09:10 Norway
May 14 09:30 Germany
May 14 10:00 Norway
May 15 09:30 Belgium
May 15 09:30 UK
May 16 08:50 France
May 16 09:10 Sweden
Originally posted here
