AUDUSD: Australia is on track for a modest budget surplus next financial year, Treasurer Wayne Swan said Sunday ahead of this week’s unveiling of his fifth budget for the mining-powered economy.
Australia, which survived the global financial crisis without dipping into recession, has previously been forecast by the government to deliver a A$1.5 billion (US$1.6 billion) surplus for the 2012-13 fiscal year beginning July 1.
An excess would represent one of the fastest budget reversals in Australian history, overcoming a current-year deficit predicted to be at least A$37.1 billion.
We expect a range for today in AUDUSD rate of 1.0100 to 1.0200 (We got hit by stop loss last week)
We set BUY STOP for AUDUSD at 1.0155
Stop loss at 1.0100
Target at 1.0210 and 1.0260
EURUSD: The euro may come under pressure next week when newly elected leaders in France and Greece begin to lay out more concrete plans to boost growth in a move investors worry could disrupt regional cooperation to reduce budget deficits.
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investors have held a net short position in the euro all year, a bet the currency will weaken against the dollar. Even so, concern the Federal Reserve might unveil more policies to stimulate growth and weaken the dollar have prevented the euro from falling dramatically.
Should the euro break below $1.2974 in the coming week, the lowest it has traded in recent months, it would open the door for the currency to weaken significantly
We expect a range for today in EURUSD rate of 1.3100 TO 1.3180 (We set limit BUY order for EURUSD at 1.3080)
We bought EURUSD at 1.3080 (continued to hold)
Stop loss at 1.3030
Target at 1.3140 and 1.3180
USDJPY: U.S. banks’ commercial and industrial loans increased $1.0 billion to about $1.413.4 trillion in the week ended April 25, the latest week for which data are available, the Federal Reserve said Friday. That followed a $2.5 billion decrease the previous week.
Jumbo certificates of deposit were unchanged at $1.510.1 trillion in the latest weekly data, after rising $3.2 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans fell $400 million to $543.1 billion after falling $900 million the previous week.
We expect a range for today in USDJPY rate of 80.00 to 80.70
We BUY USDJPY at 80.30 (continued to hold)
Stop loss at 79.60
Target at 80.70-90
