* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency hit a fresh six-month high against the U.S. dollar and European stocks gained amid ideas the European Union sovereign debt crisis has at least stabilized at present. Traders and investors in Europe welcomed the move by Greece Monday to buy back up to 10 billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at a price from 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. Spanish and Italian bond yields have declined this week, which also suggests a stabilizing overall EU debt crisis. In the U.S., the focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. A fresh Republican offer put on the table Monday was not deemed by the Democrats as sufficient. U.S. lawmakers are still jousting on the matter, with the market place now paying less attention to the politicians’ rhetoric. While the market place presently perceives there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation has been a drag on many markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the ISM New York business survey.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have a bit of upside near-term technical
momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,423.90 and then at the November high of 1,431.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,383.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have some upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,698.50 and then at 2,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,662.25 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side.Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,000 and then at Monday’s high of 13,070.Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today, on more mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150 even and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 15/32 and then at Monday’s low of 149 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today, on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.19.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.22.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.11.5 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading today and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.10 and then at Monday’s high of 80.34. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.75 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls still have a bit of upside technical momentum on their side. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.00 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Trading in the grains has been choppier recently. My bias remains that there is not strong downside price potential in the grains in the coming weeks and months.