* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, European stocks declined on apparent disagreement among European Union troika officials on the terms and when to disburse the next tranche of EU bailout money to Greece, which is now running out of cash. An EU meeting Monday failed to come to agreement on when to give Greece a new cash infusion. Now, another EU meeting is scheduled for November 20 on the matter. There was also more weak economic data coming out of Germany Tuesday, where the ZEW index of economic sentiment fell sharply. There is key economic data coming out of the EU on Thursday, as gross domestic product data is released by the major EU countries. Focus in the U.S. remains on resolving the so-called fiscal cliff matter by the end of the year. The Obama administration and congressional leaders are both jawboning the matter at present, with mixed ideas on whether the rhetoric is good or bad. Ratings agencies have issued warnings to the U.S. that U.S. credit will be downgraded if the fiscal cliff problem is not sufficiently resolved. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near a 13-week low. Bears still have some downside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,378.90 and then at 1,388.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,363.70 and then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and hovering close to a 13-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,582.75 and then at Monday’s high of 2,597.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 2,556.25 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Dow futures: Prices are lower early and hovering close to a 13-week low. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at last week’s low of 12,705 and then at 12,650. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 12,810 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh 13-week high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 152 15/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 19/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a 3.5-month high. The bulls maintain the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at last week’s high of 134.06.5 and then at 134.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.26.0 and then at 133.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading today and hit another fresh two-month high
overnight. Bulls have good upside near-term momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.31 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.03 and then at 80.68. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.58 and then at last week’s low of $84.05. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. The grain market bears have gained some fresh downside momentum, led by soybeans, following a generally bearish USDA report issued last Friday. Fresh near-term chart damage has been inflicted in soybean and corn futures, but wheat futures markets are holding their own. My bias is that there is not strong selling pressure left in corn or soybeans at present price levels.
