Highlights based on trading on Tuesday, June 5, 2012:
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/5/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,285.50) rose 7.32 points or 0.57% on Tuesday.
SPX could be “oversold”, with downside momentum temporarily exhausted for the short term.
Longer term, SPX remains systematically neutral below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The price downtrend from the SPX peak at 1,422.38 on 4/2/12 appears likely to resume.
NYSE volume fell 14%–again denying confirmation of the modest stock price recovery attempt. Volume patterns have been weak, with a tendency toward lower volume on up days and higher volume on down days, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, thereby confirming significant price downtrends:
Switzerland Index, EWL
Germany Index, EWG
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1362.49, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1,285.68, 200-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 5/31/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.72, 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 6/1/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.09, 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV/GLD remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/5/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.20% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.39% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
10.58% , DYN , DYNEGY
5.53% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.67% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
2.77% , XLNX , XILINX
1.11% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
2.70% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
2.12% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
3.80% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.28% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.22% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.39% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.45% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
3.09% , AET , AETNA
3.79% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.20% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.69% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
2.31% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.50% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
4.15% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.81% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.30% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.67% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.79% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
3.75% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.15% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
2.02% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.24% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
1.30% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.26% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.82% , MBI , MBIA
1.71% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.75% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-5.09% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-3.96% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.60% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.96% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.27% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.46% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.42% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.51% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.79% , FHN , First Horizon National
-1.82% , PX , PRAXAIR
-1.64% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.96% , PCG , PG&E
-0.40% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.53% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.99% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.01% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.24% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.34% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.22% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.48% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.52% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.18% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.28% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.86% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.12% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.80% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.20% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.58% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.12% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.08% , K , KELLOGG
-0.13% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
-0.13% , MMM , 3M
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.64% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.30% Networking, IGN
2.09% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.06% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.97% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.93% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.92% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.90% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.65% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.58% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.55% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.53% Canada Index, EWC
1.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.39% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.32% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.31% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.31% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.29% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.28% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.27% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.26% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.26% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.20% Japan Index, EWJ
1.19% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.17% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.17% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.16% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.13% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.10% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.09% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.07% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.07% Australia Index, EWA
1.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.99% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.95% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.95% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.95% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.90% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.89% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.88% Singapore Index, EWS
0.88% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.87% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.87% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.86% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.86% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.86% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.84% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.83% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.83% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.80% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.80% Dividend International, PID
0.80% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.78% Energy DJ, IYE
0.78% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.76% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.76% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.74% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.74% South Africa Index, EZA
0.74% Energy Global, IXC
0.73% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.71% EAFE Index, EFA
0.70% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.68% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.67% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.64% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.64% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.62% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.61% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.60% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.60% France Index, EWQ
0.58% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.58% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.57% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.57% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.57% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.56% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.56% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.54% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.54% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.53% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.53% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.51% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.49% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.48% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.47% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.43% Global 100, IOO
0.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.42% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.41% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.41% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.41% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.40% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.38% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.37% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.36% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.33% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.32% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.31% European VIPERs, VGK
0.29% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.27% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.27% South Korea Index, EWY
0.26% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.25% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.22% Austria Index, EWO
0.19% India PS, PIN
0.11% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.10% Italy Index, EWI
0.09% China 25 iS, FXI
0.06% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.05% Spain Index, EWP
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.04% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.08% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.08% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.17% Russia MV, RSX
-0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.21% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.27% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.31% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.33% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.34% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.37% Germany Index, EWG
-0.47% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.54% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.64% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.34% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
