Tomorrow, 730CST.. UNENJOYMENT. Perhaps the single most anticipated unemployment number in the hisory of …. (oh wait, I dont’ work for CNBC, Whew> I can go hyper ventilate into a paper bag now…)
So tomorrow is unemployment. I think its a sell the rumor buy the fact number. Will we break below 10,000? absolutely. But then I think we rally back and chop up all of the bears.
Once again, however, I’d have my trades in accordingly. Look for a 100 to 150 pt down side push on the number. Have a resting order at 9900 or 9850, risking another 25 to 50 pts w/ a stop 9850 to 9830 should be a buy in DJH. Put a stop below, risking it down to 9785. If I am right, we will snap back like a rubber band and trade back to the 10,250 level.
IF I am wrong, and I very well might be, I’d take the loss and then re-evaluate, looking to buy dips every 50 or 100 pts down. If we settle below 1000 tomorrow, then I’d buy my 8500 puts and then go on vacation and wait til we get to that level. 8600 is 1/2 way back of the 10 month up move from the March 10th low at 6440 and 10767.. I GUARANTEE NOT ONE “ANALYST” OR COMMENTATOR WILL MENTION THIS LEVEL AS A POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE TARGET. NOT FLIPPING ONE. Not that it matters anyhow. If they did mention it, it would most likely be the fade of all fades. But I am writing about it. Its 10:02 pm in Chicago now, where I am. Lets see how right or wrong I am in 9 1/2 hours.
I think in the grains, we may be in a situation for a wild ride. Is the stronger dollar going to impact prices? Or is it a case of thinly traded markets looking for liquidity where there is none, save for the 30 cent highs and lows of so many standard deviation plotting spreadsheet based trading programs. If you notice, that’s where we seem to take breather’s now. One two or three standard deviations is where you have to look for liquidity. It makes trading the grains on a daily basis one step away from a keno slip at a coffee shop in Vegas. If you catch a move, take a profit, put a stop in and get ready to have your stops “discovered” by the programs. I am convinced there is some security breach or some protocol which allows certain players to see where the stops are resting.
But that could just be my bitterness at the fact that so very often it seems like my stops are magnets, lol.
Be that as it may, you have to use stops to survive long term.
Pick your spot, use your stops, keep your bets small,and let your winner’s ride w/ trailing stops.
Good luck tomorrow. It should be an interesting.
On the number, have a buy in the Dow 100 to 150 points below tonight’s close and a sell 100 to 150 points above the close. There is a good chance you’ll get filled on both if you are patient.
I am still worried about the 8600 level as 2 to 3 month down side risk target, however.
Good Trading
Good Trading
