Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/23/10 and remains bullish.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 8/23/10, confirming a bullish trend.
Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 7-month low on 8/23/10 and remains bearish.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/23/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/23/10, again confirming a downside correction that started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,067.36) price closed 0.40% lower on 8/23/10 after a morning rally on a bit of merger news quickly fizzled. Although some loss of short-term downside momentum is evident since 8/19/10, rally attempts appear unable to attract much of a following since 8/9/10. In fact, since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. On-Balance Volume on the SPY fell to a 10-month low on 8/23/10. In addition, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a fresh bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.07% , WPO , Washington Post
1.95% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
3.57% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
0.46% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.72% , AVP , AVON
1.73% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.93% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.98% , NCR , NCR
1.11% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
3.65% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.92% , AEE , AMEREN
2.37% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.20% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.97% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.76% , KG , KING PHARM
0.99% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
0.57% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.51% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
1.83% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.46% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.48% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
1.55% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.11% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.77% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
1.70% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.47% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.45% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
0.96% , CI , CIGNA
0.48% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.15% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.79% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
1.31% , COH , COACH
0.71% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.98% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
0.23% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.28% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.36% , NI , NISOURCE
0.13% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.17% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.17% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.32% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-2.47% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.75% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-0.82% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-5.00% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
-1.40% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.39% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.75% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-3.92% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.47% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.73% , DOV , DOVER
-0.89% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.64% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.61% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.16% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.54% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.12% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.72% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-2.09% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.13% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-1.23% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.71% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.99% , LOW , LOWES
-0.52% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.51% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-3.52% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-3.24% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.72% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.39% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.95% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.10% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
-0.94% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.87% , MBI , MBIA
-1.37% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.01% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-3.08% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.16% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.13% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-2.46% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-3.64% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/23/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned bearish (but only slightly) on 8/20/10 as the 50-day SMA fell a little bit below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 8/23/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, with 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price fell below 4-week lows on 8/23/10 and is now bearish relative to both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 8/18/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price lost upside momentum in August and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 7-month low on 8/23/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-month lows on 8/23/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This Ratio has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/23/10, again confirming a downside correction that started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Support 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price has been consolidating previous gains since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper may remain in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.4105, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to another 19-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/23/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/19/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-week highs on 8/20/10, signaling a short-term correction to the upside. The larger time frames appear uncertain, however. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 8/18/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1. 18, down from 1.52 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,067.36) price closed 0.40% lower on 8/23/10 after a morning rally on a bit of merger news quickly fizzled. Although some loss of short-term downside momentum is evident since 8/19/10, rally attempts appear unable to attract much of a following since 8/9/10. In fact, since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. On-Balance Volume on the SPY fell to a 10-month low on 8/23/10. In addition, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a fresh bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.88, low of 7/20/10
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.66% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.61% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.52% Spain Index, EWP
0.48% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.46% South Africa Index, EZA
0.45% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.40% Austria Index, EWO
0.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.31% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.28% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.21% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.17% Energy DJ, IYE
0.13% Italy Index, EWI
0.13% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.12% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.09% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Sweden Index, EWD
0.00% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.00% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.00% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.05% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.05% France Index, EWQ
-0.10% Dividend International, PID
-0.11% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.11% India PS, PIN
-0.11% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.13% Global 100, IOO
-0.16% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.17% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.20% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.20% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.22% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.24% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.26% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.28% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.29% Energy Global, IXC
-0.34% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.37% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.37% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.37% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.38% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.38% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.39% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.41% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.41% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.42% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.44% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.45% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.46% Germany Index, EWG
-0.46% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.46% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.47% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.48% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.51% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.52% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.53% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.53% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.54% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.57% Canada Index, EWC
-0.59% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.59% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.61% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.63% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.65% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.68% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.68% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.69% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.70% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.70% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.70% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.70% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.75% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.83% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.86% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.86% Water Resources, PHO
-0.89% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.89% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.90% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.91% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.95% Australia Index, EWA
-0.95% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.95% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.98% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.98% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.03% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.07% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.08% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-1.10% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.14% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.19% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.21% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.23% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.27% Russia MV, RSX
-1.28% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.29% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.29% Networking, IGN
-1.36% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.38% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.39% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.47% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.49% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.54% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.58% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.71% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.47% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
