“Economic forecasts are blunt instruments at best, rarely being able to anticipate economic turning points more than a few months in advance.” Nate Silver
Just thought I would open with a comment from a person many consider the foremost political analyst out there. His foray into economics is insightful, as I have been saying the above ad nauseum. I base my opinion on anecdotal evidence derived from years of watching economic oracles “miss the mark” time after time …
The market yesterday did not sell off at the end of the day and this morning’s opening suggests it might be feeling good about US economic data. The drop in the US unemployment rate (arguably meaningful) does two things for the market. It suggests the tepid recovery is improving and it will make the US consumer feel better. The latter is key to any uptick in the recovery and to corporate earnings, the singular indicator the market ultimately looks to …
- The euro zone is considering aiding Spain by providing insurance for investors who buy government bonds in a move designed to maintain Spanish access to capital markets and minimize the cost to European taxpayers.
Every European step now is another step in the right direction. In fact, today, the political balloon went up that Spain might not need a bailout after all. Will bond-market investors like this or not? If Spain does not request a bailout, this would send a strong signal that the ailing EU countries are in fact healing.
Now, a question from a reader …
- I am learning about trading, mostly Forex since Nov. 2011. I would like to know what sources of media you use (magazines, newspapers, TV programs, websites etc.) in your daily study of the global information? Thanks for your time and concern to help a novice. I am still on the losing side, and I am trying to find the missing link to see a turn around.
Primarily, I rely on the Internet for my data. I have a long list of sources, including but not limited to, Reuters, UPI, BBC, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg News, CNBC, Barron’s, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, and euronews. I also utilize the Realty Trac web site and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the definitive report from the US Department of Commerce. Not included here are myriad market-oriented websites that provide varying opinions on the market, as well as specific markets.
As to your losing, consider taking a break from trading until you get a handle on the macro picture. It will take some time to find your way through the abundant sources out there, to learn how to absorb the information quickly, and then how to form a reasonable conclusion. The trick for me is to read thoroughly, as journalists are taught to put what they see as important in the opening paragraph, and their editors often see the sensational as the most important thing. Read deep, young man, and while you are it, consider reading about the data below.
- Samsung Electronics reported quarterly profit of $7.3 billion – a fourth straight record quarter and nearly double last year’s figure.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
