Our permanently bullish cable news commentators flashed a trailer this morning, that “November greets investors with higher prices”. Wow, the market is open for 15minutes, is over the “magical” number of gaining more than 100 pts, and all is right in the world.
I still want to see how we re act when we go up the the old April high…
I can’t help but want to fade popular delusions… The whole world is aware, it seems, that the mutual fund industry puts money to work on or near the first and fifteenth of the month when they get their 401K infusions. Those mangers get paid to buy stocks, not sit on cash. So generally, there is a bump at the start of a new month, or a new quarter.
We survived October, generally a volatile and bearish month for stocks. Just because we got through October, now it seems that all is well. That makes me wary.
I still think, at this point, after a 1300 point rally without a big pull back, we are over due. I am not switching horses mid stream.
I will say , however, if the market has a substantial settlement above 10,200 that would be where I would exit shorts. I wouldn’t want to flip right away and get long. I have been looking for a correction for about 3 weeks. There is no better way to get chopped up and lose money than by flipping with no good reason.
Taking a loss = good. Taking a loss and then flipping immediately to try to catch the move the right way = recipe for disaster. I would rather take the loss, regroup and think about what the next move should be, rather than just trying to flip and catch every market gyration.
I would think that the anticipation of Fed easing is factored in. As is a take back of the house by the Republicans. I think we may be in store for a buy the rumor, sell the fact correction. We could get Republican victory, and then a nice, “hi how are ya?” kick to the pants in these stocks. That’s my opinion. Duly Noted and recorded.
That’s all for the stocks for this morning.
In the grain, overnight, it seems that we are less than a dime away from the $6.00 print. With the funds long over 400K contracts in the corn, does anyone really think they won’t buy what ever amount it takes to go and get that $6.00 print? I think would be amazed if they don’t get that print and try to run those buy stops.
With November SX beans making new highs, almost nightly, it is searching for resistance. 12.71 seems like its the next logical upside target.
Good Trading
Happy November
