“Dire” is my word today. My news feeds all carry a quiet sense of dire about the economic and market outlook. Perhaps, though, this is what the market needs, a bit of a breather. After all, it is sitting around 5-year highs, and the economic data out of Europe is not so pretty. And with pundits predicting a less-than-stellar earnings season, it appears it is time for a break …
Before I respond to an interesting request from a reader, I want to go back to a question a reader asked last week. He asked about my sources of news. I gave a long list, but I forgot one important source – Squawk Box Europe. I like this source because it gives me a heads up on European news. As well, I like the candor and relative objectivity many analysts project. I get a sense of frankness and a lack of bias that most on the American counterpart CNBC don’t project.
- Great article (Oct 3). Strong facts, presented in an easy-to-read way. If you are looking for improving it further: Some more clarity on where the market is headed rather than just “if the market falls, it’s a buying opportunity.” For housing starts, you could give us some stocks that you like. IOW please make your excellent analysis actionable.
I appreciate the reader’s compliment. Thank you. Now, on to his request …
I would love to provide more clarity about future movement of the market, but I am no better at that than the highly paid prognosticators who give their predictions daily. At best, I feel comfortable with the reader’s quote above – “if the market falls …” True, I have and will project market movement some ways out, such as, “it is highly likely the market will go up this fall, as it has done for the past three falls.” I said that back in July and I gave reasons, other than the historical pattern. In that type of timeframe, I seem to do well, but I am hit-and-miss in the shorter timeframes. For my own trading, I do okay, but I am reluctant to do as many do and say flat out what the movement will be day to day. My goal is to educate, not to explicitly direct toward “the trade.”
As to naming specific stocks, I tend to shy away from that as well, although I do from time to time give out specific stocks I am trading. Since I do, perhaps I can be more forthcoming about specifics in the future. Well today is the beginning of tomorrow so … When I came across the data for the restaurant industry yesterday, I followed up with an exploration of the hotel industry.
Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) releases it earnings today and based on what I read yesterday, this is a stock to look at, no matter what the earnings report is.
- The average analyst estimate is for net income of 21 cents per share, a rise of 31.2% from the company’s actual earnings for the year-ago quarter. It has been unchanged at 21 cents during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 17.4% compared to last year’s $1.08.
Believe it or not, European data about travel is good as well (hotels and restaurants). According to Europe’s largest travel company (TUI AG), third-quarter earnings rose as revenue at the hotel and cruises divisions increased … Now, here is another thought to ponder.
After sitting out much of the more than 100% rally since the lows of 2009, individual investors are finally starting to put money to work in stocks. We’ve entered the age of investing cynicism where investors only know two things for sure: 1) they need to be in the market; and 2) over the longer term, the vast majority of pros badly under-perform, especially after fees.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
