Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 4/12/13, suggesting a short-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral but appears to be heading toward a bearish 50/200-day SMA crossover in weeks ahead. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 4/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 29 months on 4/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
Energy Stock Sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 4/12/13, confirming a preexisting significant downtrend. XLE/SPY remains systematically neutral–but, with the 50/200-day SMAs now converging, it appears to be heading toward a bearish SMA crossover in weeks ahead. XLE/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, and it fell below its 200-day SMA on 4/2/13.
Materials Stock Sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 4/12/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. XLB/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/28/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
On Friday, stock prices moved mildly lower, following 4 consecutive up days. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,588.85) finished down 0.28%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by less than 0.01%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower by 0.34%. NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level matching its 200-day SMA.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P Mid Cap 400 Index closed at new highs on Thursday, 4/11/13, thereby confirming bullish trends.
On the other hand, the following price indexes failed to confirm uptrends last week (that is, they did not rise above recent highs): Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index.
In addition, the following indicators based on the S&P 500 failed to rise to new highs: the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the Bullish Percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 in Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends. NYSE Net New Highs also failed to rise above highs of January, 2013.
Breadth was moderately bearish, with 1475 Advances and 2460 Declines, and the Cumulative Daily Net Difference of the Number of Advancing Stocks Minus the Number of Declining Stocks on the NYSE also rose above its March high on Wednesday 4/10/13.
Advancing/Declining Volume was negative, with 1.0 Advancing Stock Volume to 2.2 Declining Stock Volume. The Cumulative Daily Net Difference of the Volume of Advancing Stocks Minus the Volume of Declining Stocks on the NYSE rose above its March high on Wednesday 4/10/13.
Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly for many weeks and months while price indexes rose to higher highs. Momentum oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, and below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index, now at 64.59, peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9), now at 12.78, peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
The Art of Contrary Thinking has been calling for questioning overwhelming bullish sentiment. Objective investor sentiment data clearly have demonstrated extremely high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency, matching or exceeding extremes at past market price tops. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/3/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.32, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/5/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 4/12/13, suggesting a short-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral but appears to be heading toward a bearish 50/200-day SMA crossover in weeks ahead. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.16, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 4/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 143.42 and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 29 months on 4/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 4/5/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 17 months on 4/4/13, confirming a major bearish trend. JJC is systematically bearish. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.27% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
5.87% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
9.93% , ASH , ASHLAND
5.93% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.73% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
2.24% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.37% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
3.64% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.10% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.47% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
2.39% , HD , HOME DEPOT
0.75% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.10% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.57% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.64% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.41% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.49% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.95% , CSX , CSX
0.37% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.15% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
2.03% , A , AGILENT TECH
0.54% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.45% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.65% , K , KELLOGG
1.16% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.19% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.34% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.32% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.49% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.81% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.20% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.08% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , EXC , EXELON CORP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.32% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-4.70% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-4.68% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-4.69% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.46% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.61% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-2.02% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-5.90% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-3.15% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-4.29% , FLR , FLUOR
-2.62% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.86% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.78% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.42% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.64% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.24% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.91% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.26% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-2.64% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.62% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.53% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.73% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-2.70% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.18% , WAT , WATERS
-1.46% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-2.26% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.02% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-0.35% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-2.19% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.65% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-3.22% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-1.56% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.61% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.49% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.66% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.62% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.58% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.56% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.54% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.50% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.49% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.42% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.41% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.37% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.34% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.34% , Spain Index, EWP
0.32% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.32% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.27% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.24% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.23% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.19% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.16% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.08% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.08% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.03% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.06% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.07% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.09% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.10% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.10% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.10% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.11% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.11% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.12% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.12% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.13% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.13% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.14% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.18% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.20% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.21% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.22% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.24% , Global 100, IOO
-0.25% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.25% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.25% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.25% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.27% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.27% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.30% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.31% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.32% , Dividend International, PID
-0.32% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.33% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.35% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.35% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.35% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.36% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.36% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.37% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.37% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.38% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.38% , France Index, EWQ
-0.38% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.39% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.39% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.39% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.40% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.40% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.40% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.40% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.41% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.41% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.42% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.43% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.43% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.43% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.43% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.43% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.44% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.44% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.44% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.48% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.48% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.50% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.51% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.52% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.53% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.54% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.55% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.57% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.60% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.64% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.66% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.66% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.67% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.68% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.70% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.72% , Networking, IGN
-0.73% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.74% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.84% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.89% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.08% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.24% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.24% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.33% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.43% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.46% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.48% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.53% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.56% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.62% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.64% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.67% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.91% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.02% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.26% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.42% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.73% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.78% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.86% , India PS, PIN
-3.15% , South Korea Index, EWY
-4.70% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-5.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1597.35, intraday high of 4/11/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1576.09, intraday high of 10/11/2007
1538.99, 50-day SMA
1538.57, low of 3/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1446.90, 200-day SMA
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
